BOT financing risk assessment method based on fault tree study
|School||Chongqing Technology and Business University|
|Keywords||BOT financing risk Fault Tree Analysis Quantitative risk assessment fuzzy numbe r Grey corre lation|
BOT(Build-Operate- Transfer), as one form of project financing, is of more financ ing participants, longer financing time, larger scale financing characteristics and structure is complex, leading to the great financing risk. So it requires managers to effective ly control risk. How to apply the scientific method to analyze project of BOT with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is the important problem about controlling risk. At present, there are not so many relevant quantitative researches. The paper quantitatively analyzes the risk factors of BOT project with the fault tree analysis. The analysis provide the basis of dec ision of project financing.FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) is a causal logic model to evaluate the relationship of failure and causes of system, applying to research of complex systems. In this paper, the influences of BOT project financing risk factors are discussed with a way of qualitative analysis. Using this way, the fault tree of BOT project financing is established. All the minimal cut- sets are got through qualitative analys is. The basic risk factors are investigated that cause failure of project and the probability of failure of project is counted. Generally speaking, fault tree analys is is a model which cans more easily quantitative analysis is based on. But analysis results tend to appear uncertain data and partial data, due to lacking of BOT project data and data accuracy is insufficient. So, the fuzzy fault tree analysis and gray correlation analys is method are introduced to qualitative analysis.The fault tree of BOT project is established by considering the main influences of risk which Influence pro ject financing success, when analyses the project of BOT with the fuzzy mathematics analysis method. Triangular fuzzy- number designated probabilit y of the basic events in fault tree. Then, the paper calculates the probability of ChuDing events. A new method- Median method for analyzing fuzzy significance was provided to order the basic events in fault tree. The fuzzy probability order and classification are also found.Grey correlation analysis is applied in the model identification of the fault diagnosis and fault tree analysis. The fault tree also is of the main risk factors of BOT project. The possibility of fault model could be judged correctly in the fault tree analys is, which provides a scientific basis for fault handling in order to improving the reliabilit y and security of the system.