Water Demand Forecast of Seven Areas of Qingdao and Water Resources Rational Allocation
|School||Qingdao Technological University|
|Keywords||water consumption water demand forecast model diverting the yellow river water to Qingdao|
Qingdao is one of the cities which are lack of water seriously in the North of China, especialy the city water resources.In order to resolve this problem,some measures should be taken,such as strengthing saving water,digging the local water resources, using the water in Yellow River reasonably.In this article,by discussing and analyzing the linear regression model,the grey model,the nerval network,the time series model and the classification model,the grey model and the classification model were selected,combining the interrelated factors searched in Qingdao.On the base of investigating the local water resources,this paper forecasted the water demand of Qingdao,put forward countermesures of using and collocating the water resource of Qingdao,and analyzed the water demand of diverting the yellow river water to Qingdao,combining the national economic and general planning.The water supply capacity of Qingdao was 814 200t/d.By forecasting the water requirement of Qingdao will reach to 1 308 119 t/d in 2010,and 1 855 645 t/d in 2020. After using the mesures as follows:using seawater and reclaimed water,in 2010 Qingdao will lack 318 900t water one day,and 556 400t in 2020.By analyzing water resources supply and demand balance,in 2010,618 900t water will be needed one day by diverting the yellow river water to Qingdao,in 2020,856 400t one day.According to the situation of water resources supply and demand balance,from 2005,it was harder and harder to develop water resource,especially the water resource which had a certain scale.So the main task is to make a good rational allocation,in order to make the water resource optimal utilization.