Dissertation
Dissertation > Economic > Economics > Basic problems of economics > Macroeconomics

Inspection and analysis of China 's macroeconomic forecast

Author HanZuo
Tutor ShenLiSheng
School Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Course Quantitative Economics
Keywords Economic forecasts Econometrics Economic model Prediction error Loss function The mean square error Rms MAPE
CLC F015
Type Master's thesis
Year 2002
Downloads 408
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The forecast is based on the study of the history and current status , according to the objective law of its future development and changes to make scientific speculation . The economic forecast is generated in the process of commodity production and exchange , should developed countries to develop economic policy and industrial and commercial enterprises operation and management decisions need . Due to the emergence of economic forecasting errors exist inevitability prediction test problem is a necessary part of many aspects of the economic forecasts in the last . It as a signal transduction bridge , constantly refined based on existing models can be derived from the results of a modified model of the necessary information , and feedback to the existing model to improve prediction accuracy . On the prediction accuracy of the test can be divided into two methods , one is to rely on the model (model-based) methods , another detachment model (model-free) . With the in-depth development of the socialist market economic reforms , China 's increasing emphasis on economic forecasts . Beginning in 1992 , the \This article is selected the units research papers from 1992 to 2000 \law.

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