Inspection and analysis of China 's macroeconomic forecast
|School||Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences|
|Keywords||Economic forecasts Econometrics Economic model Prediction error Loss function The mean square error Rms MAPE|
The forecast is based on the study of the history and current status , according to the objective law of its future development and changes to make scientific speculation . The economic forecast is generated in the process of commodity production and exchange , should developed countries to develop economic policy and industrial and commercial enterprises operation and management decisions need . Due to the emergence of economic forecasting errors exist inevitability prediction test problem is a necessary part of many aspects of the economic forecasts in the last . It as a signal transduction bridge , constantly refined based on existing models can be derived from the results of a modified model of the necessary information , and feedback to the existing model to improve prediction accuracy . On the prediction accuracy of the test can be divided into two methods , one is to rely on the model (model-based) methods , another detachment model (model-free) . With the in-depth development of the socialist market economic reforms , China 's increasing emphasis on economic forecasts . Beginning in 1992 , the \This article is selected the units research papers from 1992 to 2000 \law.