Dissertation > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods

Crisis Hypothesis Testing"

Author YaoZuo
Tutor LuXinBo
School Zhejiang University of Finance
Course Western Economics
Keywords Crisis hypothesis Financial crisis The reform of state-owned enterprises Probit model
CLC F224
Type Master's thesis
Year 2012
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Domestic and international academia for the \definite conclusions, but the research background is generally the implementation of the developed countries and the implementation of the transition countries of the \From the current situation of the domestic scholars have noted that the crisis caused by the phenomenon of reform and a number of case studies, but only a preliminary discussion, but also a lack of systematic theoretical and empirical research. Therefore, the main shortcomings of the existing research is that no single country \This article is for the above shortcomings, trying to analyze the relationship between the financial crisis and the reform of state-owned enterprises based on the Chinese transition background to study the applicability of the \Logical thinking and the main content of this article is as follows. First, draw domestic scholars of China's reform process on the basis of analysis of the financial crisis to promote the role of the state-owned enterprise reform in China's transition context, to test hypotheses put forward in this article, and then design the model program. Second, we use the Probit model to examine the relationship between the financial crisis and the reform of state-owned enterprises, in order to study the applicability of the \starting to interpret the results of the econometric test. Finally, draw the conclusions of this study, and put forward China's reform into a stalemate and crucial stage, how to effectively use the crisis breakthrough reform bottlenecks policy recommendations. By analyzing draw two conclusions: first, in the year of occurrence of the financial crisis, China's state-owned enterprise reform, the probability is about 50%, the financial crisis did not happen more than three times, so that the financial crisis triggered by the contributed to the reform of state-owned enterprises, and thus that the \production to maximize the righteous rational, but because of diminishing marginal returns of national righteousness rational investment law and the existence of Wagner's law, in order to break the vicious circle between financial pressure and righteousness rational crisis, the government take the initiative to implement the reform of state-owned enterprises. Herein innovation possible by the following two points: First, the current \Lack of response to that, this article is to examine the relationship between the financial crisis and the reform of state-owned enterprises based in China's transformation background, which is the largest of this article marginal contribution. Second, from the perspective of the crisis starting to explore the process of China's economic system reform, so as to come to a new understanding of the Chinese reform path, and how to take advantage of the crisis to promote the reform of macroeconomic policy recommendations put forward in the process of institutional transformation, based on this, is a useful complement to the transformation of economic theory.

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