Study on the Relativity between the Fluctuation of International Oil Price and Chinese Stock Market
|School||Hebei University of Technology|
|Keywords||international oil prices international commodity prices stock market the transmissionmechanism|
With China’s rapid economic development, the proportion of industrialization and energy consumption isincreasing. But the proportion of oil reserves in energy resources in our country is very smaller, in order tomeet the needs of the state’s economic development, large and growing oil import are needs, so graduallyincreased dependence on foreign oil. In the history, every huge fluctuation in oil prices gave a negative impacton the world economy, China is in the manufacturing development stage, when the international oil pricefluctuate, which will undoubtedly have a significant impact to our national economy. However, the stockmarket, as the national economy, can keen to reflect a country’s economy. The price transmission mechanismaccording to the principle of the international market price fluctuations will affect the domestic market pricefluctuations, and then the international oil price fluctuations will be conducted through the relevant channels tothe China stock market prices. Based on this, study on the correlation of the international oil price fluctuationand chinese stock market has some practical significance.In this paper, based on results of oil price and stock markets from foreign and domestic studies, thecentral topic of research is the correlation between the international oil price fluctuations and the study ofChinese stock markets. First, based on the international oil price volatility and operating conditions of theChinese stock market, viewing at the point of the transmission mechanism about the fluctuations ofinternational oil price to the Chinese stock market, caused by changes in international commodity prices, PPI,CPI index. in-depth studying the relevance between the fluctuations of international oil price and the Chinesestock market, then in order to operate practical basis on stock markets in China for the sound operatingmechanism. Second, by using econometric techniques to model the international oil price volatility and therelevance of the Chinese stock market, the international oil price volatility on the return rate of Chinese stockmarket, the inherent correlation of them，including three aspects of empirical analysis and conclusions. Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research, summary the text, and put proposed some strategy onhow to reduce the high oil prices effection on chinese economic.