Research on Price Forming Mechanism of Industrial Metals Futures in China
|Keywords||Industrial metals future SHFE’future Price forming mechanism Dynamic multiple regression model|
Economic development of China have had a great achievement that people over the world commonly think highly of during the past thirty years of reform and opening . However , relative to the situations that exist in real economy sector which is more expansive in whole scale and is more optimizing in structure , the development of finance sector is obviously more slowly , which affected the whole economy developing to a certain extent . Therefore , the government of China have announced the schedule which makes the financial sector develop faster and better .What we learn from the experiences of financial markets’development both at home and abroad is that development of financial sector is whole developing in all sides that is related to one another . And as the center for finding the price and avoiding risks , futures market is due to develop better. Especially , futures market for major international commodities ,such as copper , aluminum , zinc and steels and so on , is very important for China whose phase of economic development is located to post-industrial era . In this situation , this article studies the price forming mechanism of industrial metals futures in China , which display the meaning for theory studying and practice test of finance and futures markets in China . At the same time , the price forming mechanisms for copper , aluminum , zinc , and steels are the same in essence , so the object of researching in the paper is copper .For the first , some papers about the price forming mechanism for copper are seriously abstracted and analyzed in this context , and their methods for researching , their perspective for thinking and their fundamental theories based on are paid more attention to analyze . On the base of analysis above , the aspect of analysis pointing to market practice is given in the paper . secondly , traditional futures price forming theories mainly including the cost-of-carry theory and equilibrium price theory are simply introduced . After that , there is to focus on introducing (New classical economics)Theory of Supply and Demand , (New classical macroeconomics)real business cycle theory , (Rational Expectations School’s)rational expectations theory , and economic theory of externality , and to analyze the applying of the theories in the SHFE’s copper futures market in this paper . And then , according to the marketing practice , main influence factors and their determinative variables are chosen . And then a dynamic multiple regression model is successfully constructed .Finally , comparatively analyzing the empirical results in short-term(2008) , and in medium-term(2007~2009) , and in long-term(2006~2010) , the conclusion that the dynamic model is fit for the medium-term (2007~2009) can be gotten . The results showed that SHFE’s copper futures price is sensitive for the change of PMI , and the change of USDX , and the occasions of big events , and their influence coefficient reached 473.4,and 1374 ,and 3068.1 respectively . But it is not sensitive for the change of M2 and the change of inventory of SHFE’copper . In the last department, the regression results is explained in economy side , and on the basis of explanation , suggestions that may offer to for the policy makers and investors are given respectively .