Empirical Research on the Impact of Real Estate Cycle on Financial Stability in China
|School||Dongbei University of Finance|
|Keywords||Real estate cycle Financial Stability VAR model Variance decomposition|
With the Chinese housing reform in depth, Chinese real estate industry has been rapid development, the formation of a wave of real estate fever, at the same time promote the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of China's economic development, which in the national economy highlighted the growing importance. Real estate in the entire financial system, increasing the proportion increasing influence of the real estate industry has become a new source of profit for the financial industry. As China's financing structure to indirect financing, the domestic real estate corporate finance is the main channel bank credit, namely the development of China's real estate market's dependence on the banking system is extremely high, the burden of real estate finance almost all the pressure in the body of commercial banks, real estate cyclical risks in highly concentrated. Therefore, as the financial industry and the increasingly close relationship between real estate, real estate cycle fluctuations on financial stability is gradually increased. Banking system to undertake a large number of financial risks is currently China's actual conditions, and China to deepen reform of the financial sector is still in the stage of the mechanism is not yet perfect, so deal with the real estate cycle is the relationship between financial stability problems to be solved, the paper Based on this reason, attempts to explore the Chinese real estate cycle for financial stability. This paper is divided into five chapters, the main research structure and contents are as follows: The first chapter is the introduction. First proposed the research background and significance, and then against the background of the research problem emerged briefly on paper Research research ideas at home and abroad to make a statement and, finally, on the innovation of this paper and shortcomings will be described. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis. First, this article explains the real estate cycle and financial stability concept measure, then the impact of the real estate cycle theory for financial stability analysis, text study provides theoretical basis. In the theoretical analysis on the one hand that the financial industry is bound to rely on the real economy, the real estate market will drive the expansion of the scale of the real estate finance business expansion, the development of the real estate market will drive financial innovation; the other hand, pointed out China real estate credit risk exposure problem. The third chapter is the financial stability indicator system parts. Based on the IMF's financial soundness indicators (FSI) system, combined with other references as well as data collection situation, from the micro-prudential macroeconomic indicators and indicators of two levels, covering macroeconomic, banking, insurance, real estate market, corporate and six aspects of the household sector, the establishment of financial stability indicators and a brief introduction to the basic ideas of AHP and index assignment steps. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis section. This paper introduces the Chinese real estate cycle and financial stability profile, and then use AHP to calculate the composite index of financial stability, and finally the use of the real estate cycle and financial stability composite index created two variables VAR model, variance decomposition for empirical analysis. The results show that: first, the Chinese real estate sales growth to financial stability composite index to a certain extent, but this effect has a certain lag, the maximum lag of 2; Second, China's real estate sales growth to financial stability The impact composite index lagged one and two are positive, that real estate sales growth and financial stability index is in the same direction changes; Third, real estate sales growth to financial stability contribution Composite Index gradually increase, both in the third and fourth are relatively stable. Chapter five policy recommendations section. This section presents the real estate cycle to prevent fluctuations threaten financial stability, countermeasures and suggestions. In order to reduce the real estate cycle fluctuations on the financial stability of the degree of harm, should first raise the importance of the real estate cycle fluctuations, early warning mechanism to strengthen the construction of real estate in order to run the state and problems of the real estate market can react in advance and to take effective measures; secondly, Real estate should broaden the financing channels, to establish a diversified real estate finance system in order to reach the dispersed real estate finance risk. In this paper, the real estate cycle impact on financial stability, reference and research not only inherited the results of previous studies, also has some innovations, of course, there may be some shortcomings. In this study of financial stability indicators used indicators is not a single indicator, but rather to build financial stability index system and uses the calculated AHP comprehensive index, and the paper uses a variety of analytical methods to investigate the real estate cycle empirical the impact on financial stability, and strive to achieve more satisfactory results. Establish financial stability indicators covered by numerous indicators, involving a broader, because the author's level of financial theory and data collection capacity is limited, and thus the financial stability index system for the design and empirical analysis, there are many deficiencies. Some findings of this paper for further discussion and validation. In a serious scientific spirit, these issues will continue in future research are discussed and analyzed.