Empirical Study of Insecurity, Precautionary Saving and Insufficient Consumption of Our Residents
|School||Dongbei University of Finance|
|Keywords||insecurity coefficient of risk-aversion precautionary saving the rate of change in consumption|
In recent years, the final consumption rate of our country is a downward trend. Especially after the financial crisis of 2008, it dropped to 48.6%, which is the minimum of this rate since reform and opening up. To tackle the crisis, our goverment adopted a series of fiscal and monetary policies, particularly the ten measures to stimulate consumption. In those two years since financial crisis, all policies achieve the expected results, and all indexes indicate that the economy is resurging. However, rethink the cause of the financial crisis, and the measures we taken, I think, the basic reason is the incoordination between the economic reform and institutional reform. There is short of synchronous structure development during the economic take-off. The shortage of social security and the lower of consumption lead to a series of bread-butter issues, and cause the inequality and uncertainty of income. In addition, the consumers also face the expenditures of medical care, education and buying house. All of those factors make the consumers have a higher expectation of the future consumption, and come about a phenomenon of overlarge proportion rate of saving and under consumption.In view of these problems, there are three purposes in this paper. First, the essay divides people into the rich and the poor according to different income level, further to analysis whether the poor is more averse risk than the rich. Second, it measures the degree of insecurity of people by the risk-averse coefficient, further to estimate the risk-averse coefficient of consumers. Finally, it analyzes the degree of the precautionary saving of consumers by the risk-averse coefficient, further to explain the phenomenon of under consumption.The essay is divided into four chapters. The first chapter is an introduction of the writing context and motive, the construction and research method of this paper, and the innovation and shortage. The second chapter is the literature review, it introduces the precautionary saving theory concretely, which is the theoretical basis of this essay. Besides, there are some introduction about the applications of this theory. The third chapter is the theory modle, this chapter is divided three parts, and each of them correspond to the three purpose referred preamble respectively. The fourth chapter is the empirical research. In this part, I reckon the risk-averse coefficient of our national consumers, and analyze the effects of this coefficient to the consumption, and the degree of the precautionary saving. The last chapter are the conclusions and policy proposals. In this chapter, some policy proposals are directed to the problems which from the conclusions.