A Research on the Effect of Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform to the Effectiveness of the Monetary Policy
|Keywords||M-F model The effectiveness of monetary policy Impossible triangle Monetary Policy|
Mundell - Fleming Model theory , China gradually relax capital controls and reference to a basket of currencies managed floating exchange rate system , the monetary policy should be effective . China 's current economic situation is in line with the Mundell - Fleming model , the exchange rate system in July 2005 before and after the reform of China 's monetary policy on the economic impact of how the effects of monetary policy change ? Paper compares Mundell - Fleming Model assumption that China's actual situation , the economic situation in China and the deviation of the model , not the conclusion of the model is directly applied to our country , that is, in theory, can not launch our monetary policy remains valid conclusions after the exchange rate reform . This paper attempts to study the problem from an empirical point of view , Dornbusch sticky-price model analysis framework , within two years of the Sino-US exchange rate system reform after collecting data , applying Granger causality test methods, to determine our exchange rate fluctuations and the causal relationship between monetary policy and the correlation between the size of the fluctuations in exchange rates and monetary policy supply . The context of this paper the evolution of China 's monetary policy and the exchange rate regime , the reform of the exchange rate system in July 2005 as the time cut-off point , the application of the Granger causality test method to study the relationship between China 's money supply and real output and the price level has been China 's relaxation of capital controls and a managed floating exchange rate system under the conditions of China 's monetary policy is effective , but compared to before the reform of the exchange rate regime , the effectiveness of monetary policy to weaken the conclusion , and the effectiveness of monetary policy combined with a realistic analysis of the empirical results weakened reasons.