Research on the Relationship of China’s Economic Growth and Economic Structure
|School||Northeast Normal University|
|Course||Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics|
|Keywords||Economic growth Economic structure Quality of the economy Linear error model Linear regression model ARMA (autoregressive moving average ) model|
Our economy has rapidly developed, and comprehensive national strength and income have increased since reform and opening up. At the same time, there are also some problems exposing in the process of development. There exists a strong relationship among China’s economic growth, the economic structure, the financial income, and the resident’s income. It reflects the intrinsic relationship among the economic growth, the economic structure, and the economic growth quality. Based on the data sets of China’s GDP and income (1978-2010), that reflect China’s economic growth, economic structure and standard of income by means of building Mathematical statistical model, the article includes the following contents: 1) Build Linear error model and unary Linear regression model, by AIC, and analyze that economic development of China is divided into three stages; 2) Build multiple Linear regression model, and anlayze the relations among GDP, industrial structure and energy consumption; 3) Build unary and multiple Linear regression model, by means of flexible analysis, indicate relations among GDP, the financial revenue and the resident income; 4) By the ARMA model, resorting Ljung-Boxχ2-, forecast GDP and three industries.By analysing the models above, we conclude that the economic growth of our country is unbalanced and has different stages; Our economic growth is realized at an excessively high cost of resources and the environment., weak coordination among growth, structure and quality of economy;income shares a small part in economic“cake”. Meanwhile, we give some advice such as promoting the transformation of economic development, promote upgrading of the industrial structure, deepen reform of the income distribution system and increase the income of urban and rural residents, regulating the structure of income and distribution and strengthening macro-control efforts of economic develepment further and so on.