China 's real estate market risk measures
|School||Dongbei University of Finance|
|Keywords||The real estate market Risk system Real estate bubble Macroeconomic Financial risks|
The real estate industry is an important industry of the national economy of a country or pillar industries, and its solidarity with China's national economic development and people's production and life, in stimulating the economy, stimulate consumption contributed to the national economic development has become a \. However, the current real estate market in China has appeared too risky signs and become the focus of China's macro-economic regulation and control, and thus risk measure exploratory study of China's real estate market, whether the real estate market and have the whole country's macroeconomic major The meaning and value. This article first real estate market risk were defined on the basis of risk theory. For the characteristics of the real estate market, analyzing the external manifestation of the real estate market risk and internal generation mechanism. Followed by the establishment of the real estate risk measure system. Measure of the system is divided into the following three aspects: The first aspect is to learn from their predecessors from the point of view of the real estate bubble, some mature research index system, the ratio of investment in real estate development and investment in fixed assets, real estate development loans to total funds the specific gravity of the source, the ratio of the rate of increase in the GDP growth rate and the price earnings ratio of the four indicators empirical analysis of this stage the extent of the real estate market bubble, draw China's real estate market, although not yet a bubble, but has obvious overheating phenomenon or tendency to foam, the need to attract attention to the conclusions of the various aspects; second is from the perspective of the real estate market and macroeconomic coordination, the use of non-stationary series cointegration analysis, from real estate sales prices and GDP, income as well as interest rate coordination angle, the unit root test, cointegration and error correction model measure of real estate prices and macroeconomic coordination and analysis of the risk of China's real estate market, the draw price changes at this stage of the real estate market is in line with the needs of China's rapid economic growth, and no serious deviation from the conclusion of our residents pay level, but individual cities real estate prices have been higher than the normal speed of economic growth, you need to always grasp the trend, to guard against the risk of real estate; Third, from the point of view of the real estate market and the financial risk symbiosis, according to real estate risk and financial risk, the use of the the premises listed company's financial information data, using the statistical method of principal component analysis and discriminant analysis, analysis of the real estate market risk, credit rating distinguish the real estate enterprise using this model for China provide a reliable theoretical basis for the regulation of the real estate market. Final analysis of the results of these three aspects of the overall conclusions and propose appropriate macro-control policies and recommendations: To prevent and control the risk of the real estate market, you must stand on a macro point of view, the government's macro-control is an indispensable . The government should improve the financial market, the reform of the system of real estate land development and improve the structure of real estate products and many other aspects of comprehensive reform. Innovation of this paper is mainly manifested in: the use of a variety of economic theory, a comprehensive analysis of the risk factors of the real estate market and the generation mechanism of the real estate bubble, the real estate market and macroeconomic coordination, as well as real estate risk and financial risk symbiosis to establish a more comprehensive system risk analysis and evaluation methods.