Research on the Path of RMB Regionalization Base on View of International Currency Cooperation
|School||Tianjin University of Finance and Economics|
|Keywords||International currency cooperation RMB regionalization Economic integration Exchange rate coordination mechanism Currency competition|
Although the storm of U.S. subprime crisis has passed, the profound impact of the international financial crisis has not yet eradicated, the price of bulk stock is increasing, the pressures of global inflationary is going up, and there is uncertainty in the world economic recovery, the international currency system with over-reliance on U.S. dollars plays an important role for these problems. Promoting a fair, equitable, inclusive and orderly international financial order, and the steady progress in diversification of the international currency system accordance with the "comprehensive, balanced, progressive and effectiveness" principle is the core and crux in the reform of the international financial system after the crisis. In this context, how to have RMB smoothly going to be international as an important "pole" in diversified international currency system is increasingly attracting attention and discussion in the academia and the financial sectors.Regionalization of the RMB is a relatively large research project, involving many theoretical issues, domestic and international economists have a lot of basic research results, which have important reference value for our study. It will inevitably tend to be vague and loss of depth if a comprehensive study of this issue. Therefore, this paper, only from the perspective of international currency cooperation, researches the path of realization of RMB regionalization, the development status of RMB regionalization, dynamic mechanism, the path design and implementation of the strategy and other key issues are discussed with the functions dimensions and space dimensions of RMB regionalization as the two wings, intending to provide positive ideas and policy recommendations for promoting the RMB regionalization reform process. The main contents and opinions are as follows:1. Analyzing the main mode and its theoretical basis based on international and regional currency cooperation, and then the comparative study to typical mode of regional currency cooperation (Euro model, Latin American and East Asian model), intends to tease out the stage characteristics and system attributes of regional currency cooperation model. The success of Euro mode and the setback of Yen in the internationalization, reveals the correct path in regional currency cooperation pattern. This is the profound experience need to be learned by China in the process of promoting RMB regionalization.2. Although cross-border circulation and use of the RMB has yielded positive results, the current stage of RMB regionalization is still the infancy. The motivation of RMB regionalization is mainly the result of self-selection of market, the government’s role in promoting need to be strengthened; there is obvious non-equilibrium in the aspects of exercising the functions as international currency, and the coverage area. Therefore, RMB regionalization can only walk the path to firstly regionalize in the neighboring countries in a long period of time.3. There are many favorable conditions and also a lot of negative factors in the implementation of the RMB regionalization based on the analysis on China’s economic size, trade volume, trade structure, trade competitiveness and stability of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, the adherence to the principle of progressive, coordinated, cooperative and paying equal attention to both strengthen and opportunities in RMB regionalization, and rationally planning the functions and space line of RMB regionalization process, developing practical short, medium and long-term goals, building platform for the development of RMB regionalization, is the important guarantee to realize RMB regionalization under the premise of obtaining benefits but avoiding the risk.4. The specific path of RMB internationalization is composed of four steps that constitute the dynamic convergence. Establishing currency system with stable currency value and nurturing well-developed domestic financial market is the confidence reliability of RMB regionalization; under the conditions that capital projects is difficult for full liberalization in short time, to establish offshore RMB market is an effective way to enhance the regional influence of RMB; timely advancing gradual convertibility of RMB is the goals and base of RMB regionalization; actively participate in the Asian currency cooperation is the only way for the RMB internationalization.5. In terms of history, geography convenience, or from aspect of the economic and trade ties and the degree of market integration, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan areas are the first choice to promote RMB regionalization, the currency integration of "China Economic Circle" is the core and key in realization of RMB regionalization; China-ASEAN OCA index model test shows, with the process of trade integration, the basis of regional currency cooperation between China and ASEAN has formed, RMB has shown hidden "anchor currency" effect in the ASEAN region; in the East Asian currency competition, China must distinguish the relationship with the U.S. dollar and the Yen, Yuan and U.S. dollar competition is the alternative competition; while Yuan and Yen competition is cooperative competition, the goal is to establish a stable exchange rate within the region.