Evaluation on Ecological Security,Warning and Controlling Research in Arid Land of Western China
|Course||Population, Resources and Environmental Economics|
|Keywords||Xinjiang ecological security evaluation warning controlling|
The stratagem of western developing is put in practice in China. For this reason, Xinjiang becomes the key area of development and construction in 21st century. However, the eco-environment and the surviving condition are extremely fragile. In this region, the survival and living environment is exceeding bad. Frequent natural disasters restrain the utilization of resources. The fragile environment has become principal problem that restricts the whole district economy and social development. In order to implement the stratagem of western developing, it is a primary problem to set up the ecological security system that ensures sustainable development of regional economy society. Therefore, in Xinjiang,the typical arid area of the western China, it has important significance to analyze and research ecological security evaluation, warning and controlling. The reasons are as follows: for one thing, choosing the tactics of ecological construction of Xinjiang will be more accurate and scientific. In addition, the government department can grasp the change of ecological security, then make controlling and administration measure in time. Finally, it is an effective strategy to develop western regions, build ecological environment and ensure ecological security. In this paper, we evaluate the ecological security of Xinjiang by using the estimate model of ecosystem service, factor analysis model, neural network model and the analytic hierarchy system. The main contents are as follows: 1. Studying the theory of ecological security and current situation systematically. 2. Studying the characteristic of ecological environment in Xinjiang and existing problems, and analyzing the variation tendency of the ecological environment. 3. Studying the value evaluation and the variation tendency of ecological service services which was put forward by Constanza. The economic worth of ecosystem service in Xinjiang was 1034 billion yuan in 1996 and it was 952 billion yuan in 2003. Compared with 1996, the value was reduced 82 billion yuan in 2003.The losses of ecological value are enormous. 4. The ecological security evaluation index system in Xinjiang is set up. At the same time, ecological security evaluation of Xinjiang is studied by using factor analysis method (1988-2003). Then, we get these conclusions: (1)Plantation, forest coverage rate, per capita GDP, Engel coefficient of urban residents, university student’s number of per ten thousand people and average salary of the worker are the factors of that influence the ecological security. All these factors above are synchronous. In addition, chemical fertilizer load of unit’s area, energy consumption of industrial output value and population are also synchronous. In case of same increment, the influence degrees of the positive factors are as follows: per capita GDP> Average salary of the worker > Forest coverage rate > Engel coefficient of Urban residents> Cultivated land> University student’s number of per ten thousand people. The influence degrees of the negative factors are as follows: Population> chemical fertilizer load of unit’s area> energy consumption of industrial output value. (2)In factors of influencing ecological security, precipitation, input intensity of pollution control, comprehensive utilization ratio of industrial waste and R&D proportion account for GDP demonstrate synchronous. In case of same increment, influence degree of these positive factors to ecological security that arranging from great to small are as follows: Precipitation>R&D proportion account for GDP>comprehensive utilization ratio of industrial waste>input intensity of pollution control. (3)According to the magnitude of synthetic factors of influencing ecologicalsecurity, we can draw a conclusion about ecological security in Xinjiang from 1988 to 2003: E2003> E2002> E2001> E2000> E1999> E1998> E1996> E1997> E1995> E1994> E1993> E1992> E1990> E1991> E1989> E1988. So the situation of ecology security obviously becomes better and better. (4)From 1988 to 2003 the whole state of Xinjiang’s ecological security has being improved step by step. But in somewhere the local index and environment is becoming worse. Depending on ecological construction of over 20 years, the ecological environment of Xinjiang has been improving steadily all the time and having changed greatly. The constructions of ecological environment has obtained enormous achievements. 5. Adopting the method of neural networks and toolbox of Matlab neural network and statistical data of Xinjiang(1988-2003 ), we forecast 32 pieces of ecological security indexes in short-medium range which include plantation, forest coverage rate, and population and analysis the development trend of ecology safe status in Xinjiang till 2010. 6. We erect the concept of ecological security and judging index system. At same time, we have calculated the degree of environmental subsystem, social subsystem, economic subsystem and total system of ecological security system in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2010. After warning and controlling ecological security of Xinjiang in short-medium range, we draw a conclusions: (1)From 2004 to 2010,the ecological security situations of environmental subsystem are rising and economic subsystems are obviously ascendant in Xinjiang. However, the ecological security situations of social subsystem are declining. (2)The status of ecological security of total systematic in Xinjiang is obviously rising despite undulation occasionally. From 2004 to 2006, the development of ecological security shows medium status. From 2007 to 2009, the development ofecological security shows best status and it shows preferable status in 2010. 7. By using sensitivity factors that influence ecological security system of Xinjiang,which includes environmental subsystem, social subsystem, economic subsystem and total system, we research into ecological security of Xinjiang. We educe the conclusions: (1)The ecological security of Xinjiang depends on environmental factor highly, it is sensitive in environmental factor’s change under the existing ecological environment’s restriction, proved that the ecological environment structure of Xinjiang is very fragile and unstable from holistic standard of ecological security and quantity,. (2)According to the contributions of these three subsystem, the list is successively: Environmental subsystem >Social subsystem >Economic subsystem.. (3)Ascertained 13 sensitive indexes as the most important factors to the ecological security system, of which the contribution rate is totally up to 70.7% impacted for whole ecological security. (4)Depending on ecological security investigates, we can find out the sensitive factors, which influenced ecological subsystem, Social subsystem and economic subsystem and whole system of Xinjiang. Furthermore, we can effectively change ecological security’s development status by controlling sensitive factor. It’s very important for government to understand the change of ecological security and then take steps on controlling and administration in time. 8. Strateges of ecological security building in Xinjiang are brought forward. (1)We should reinforce protection of the resource environment and ecological construction. (2)We should control the population growth, improve population’s quality and alleviate the pressure of environmental resource.(3)We should enhance the ecological security and build science support system of sustainable development. (4)We should hasten our steps to set up and perfect technical innovation system of ecological security and the construction of conditional security system. (5)We should expedite the development and application of agricultural ecological security. (6)We should enhance the construction of ecological shelterbelt forest system and develop green economy. (7)We should perfect the laws and regulations relevant to ecological security and system of executing the law, and enhance executing the law and supervising of the resource environment. (8)We should insist on prevention, combine prevention with cure, and pay attention to the exterior and ultimate and synthesis administration. (9)Resources exploitation and thrift should be developed simultaneously. We ought to improve the level of resources utilization and efficiency.