Prediction and Control of the Spreading of H1N1 Influenza
|Keywords||Infectious disease Model H1N1 Influenza Epidemic situation Controlling measures|
H1N1 Influenza is one of the most infective epidemic illnesses, and the pandemic of the virus has a great effect on Chinese people’s life and economy. With the epidemic situation of China, and by means of the data obtained from the internet, one new mathematical model of H1N1 influenza spreading is set up, the spreading time and degree of H1N1 influenza is predicted, and some theoretic foundations and strategies for controlling H1N1 Influenza in China are presented.In this paper we discuss the following contents:(1) Analyzing the methods for setting up the infectious disease models by means of SARS models.(2) Introducing some infectious disease models based on the differential equation.(3) Presenting the process of H1N1 Influenza infection and development in China and the corresponding treatments that our government adopts during different phases of H1N1 spreading.(4) Based on the differential equation and using the synthesizing analysis, by separating people into the Susceptible, the Infective and the Removal, the translated relationship is set up.(5) By means of computer simulation, the spreading time and degree of H1N1 Influenza are approximated and the controlling approaches for H1N1 Influenza spreading are presented.The method in this paper could be generalized for prognosticating multi-type of infection illnesses. It could provide some scientific theories for control of infection illnesses.