The Construction of Spatio-temporal Matrix of Disaster Consequences
|School||Dalian University of Technology|
|Course||Management Science and Engineering|
|Keywords||Disaster Consequences Spatio-temporal Matrix Hazard-affected Bodies Topological Relationships Vulnerability|
Currently various kinds of disasters occur frequently causing increasingly serious consequences, while the existing national contingency plan can’t respond to disaster effectively. It is of great significance if we can find out the specific consequences of a disaster in advance.This will provide guidance and support for rapid and effective emergency response. Most researches on consequences of disasters have focused on specific disasters while the common analysis and emergency response are less studied, making emergency response not effective and rapid enough. Owing to the different location and time, the consequences of disaster show the characteristics of diversity and uncertainty. According to the type of a disaster, the consequences differ from each other. Therefore, how to obtain the specific consequences of a disaster is critical to the implementation of effective emergency response.Based on the common character of disaster consequences, this paper combed various kinds of disasters consequences through spatial and temporal dimensions. By constructing the disaster consequences Spatio-temporal matrix, consequences of unexpected events under different time and space were reflected. Thus, when the spatial and temporal factors of a disaster are identified, we could know the consequences quickly. This provides guidance and support for rapid and effective emergency response and makes the contingency plan effective. The main content is as follows:Firstly, this paper defined the content of emergency that was studied here and introduced four major categories of emergencies. Base on Disaster System Theory, consequence of disasters was defined. Spatio-temporal Matrix concept model was presented and spatial and temporal dimensions were introduced after discussing the impact of spatial and temporal factors on disaster consequence.Secondly, this paper analyzed and focused on the spatial dimension of the Spatio-temporal matrix of disaster consequences systematically. This paper decomposed forty national contingency plans according to its effects on dealing with disaster. Combining other disaster materials, the paper categorized hazard-affected bodies-he spatial factor of Spatio-temporal Matrix. For the four major categories of emergencies, this paper combed and summarized all the possible consequences of a disaster in a variety of spatial and temporal environment based on the classification of hazard-affected bodies. Thirdly, this paper analyzed the formation mechanism of the disaster consequence according to the types of hazard-affected bodies and disaster bearing capacity of a certain hazard-affected body and the location relationship between hazard-affected bodies. Introducing Vulnerability and TopologICal Relationships of hazard-affected bodies, this paper provided a measure method for disaster consequence under certain spatial and temporal condition.Finally, taking "Explosion" event as a case, a simulation was designed. Under certain spatial and temporal condition, the paper simulated the consequences of explosion with different conditions, and got disaster consequences of the event under specific spatial and temporal condition, verifying the measure method for disaster consequences this paper provided.The content and conclusion of this study are of great significance for emergency response: according to the specific spatial and temporal factors of events we can predict the specific consequences of a disaster and assist emergency response and provide theoretical foundation for the study and assessment of contingency plan.