Study of Competitive Theory and Method of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow
|Course||Vehicle Operation Engineering|
|Keywords||urban rail transport passenger flow self-organization theory attract competition transport mode choice disaggregatemethod|
With the continuous advancement of science and technology and the rapid development of socio-economic, city size is increasing and people’s living is improved continuously, and the demand of urban travel is growing, urban traffic increased significantly. However, the resources of urban road traffic is relatively limited, Hard driving and travel become a prominent issue, which affects residents’life of city residents and restricts the development of the urban economy, resulting in the contradiction of the traffic supply and demand is growing.In recent years, Urban rail transit has the advantages of its speed, large volume, energy saving and environmental protection, which provides a new way for solving this dilemma. So far, there are more than40countries and regions in the world have built urban rail transit, its mileage is over8000kilometer, its average annual delivery traffic is up to26billion. By the end of2011, China’s rail transit has49lines, traffic operation mileage is more than1400kilometer, and China has entered a rapid development period of urban rail transit.It has basically been recognized that urban rail traffic is in the backbone position of the comprehensive urban transportation system. However, it is very difficult to change the urban rail transit stations and line planning when they have been completed. It is become the research focus that how to attract passengers to choose rail transit travel, which purpose is to give full play to the capacity of urban rail transport.Throughout the research trends, researchers mainly concentrated in the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast on the pre-construction and the future. The basis mainly foundation of rail transit planning and construction is from the passenger forecasts of pre-construction, however, it is often appears that the actual traffic often can not achieve the forecast traffic, resulting in the poor operating income, even loss. Furthermore, in view of the current situation of China’s urban transport development in major cities, urban rail transit can not complete all of the urban public transport task in a short period, likely to completely replace the conventional bus, rail transit can only play to their strengths in a number of trunk lines.This paper studies the formation of the passenger traffic, the attract mechanism and competitive mechanism based on disaggregate method, self-organization theory, competition theory, statistics, decision-making theory. These issues are studies that how to improve the transport capacity of the operating urban rail transit systems, and the utilization of the resource of urban rail transit.The factors of selecting the urban rail transport modes, the process of the competition evolution, and the competition and cooperation between urban rail transit and other public transport were in-depth studied. The competition theory and methods were proposed to provide a theoretical basis for the transportation enterprise management strategy.The generate conditions of the traffic demand is studied based on modern transport theory. It was proposed that the traffic needs is the necessary conditions of the transport demand, and the ability-payment is the sufficient condition of the traffic demand.The correlation between trip purpose, payment ability and travel individual property was investigated based on the analysis of the characteristics, foundation-selecting and value-pricing. The needs hierarchy theory of urban transport travel is improved based on Maslow’s needs hierarchy theory, and analyze the traffic travel decision-making basis using decision theory, and the travel decision-making activities process was depicted by formulating the process of the travel decision-making process.The article studies the transport mode choice using disaggregate method. Filtering the characteristic values, selecting variable values, estimating parameters and checking model were done using Multinomial Logistic module in SPSS software, a filter on the way to travel the characteristic variables, variable values, parameter estimation and model checking of travel by mode of transportation many factors of transport mode selection were studied and analyzed.In order to study attract mechanism of urban traffic site, first, urban rail transit stations types were divided into walk-area and transfer-area according to walking and non-walking.and their influence from psychological and physiological was studies. Second, in the perspective of transportation planning theory, the calculation method of attract radius and attract coverage of the theory site is proposed, the attract force model is established using of the Reilly city law; Final, the concept of site attributes is introduced, the properties of rail transit stations were divided into service attributes and location attributes. Using conjoint analysis method, the attractiveness of site is quantified, and the importance of various factors in the site properties is obtained under site-selecting. Orthogonal processing carried out based on surveys and SPSS analysis software, utility and weights of site attribute utility weights were got.The results show that walking distance, shopping and leisure, transfer times and fee are major considerations, but time of buy ticket, comfort and convergence degree, residential-district, institutions and administrative units, were considered less.In order to reveal the nature of the relationship of competition between different transportation modes, competitive evolutionary mechanisms of urban transportation passenger system were studied using self-organizing theory. First of all, the natural evolution of the one-dimensional systems was studied without considering competition and cooperation, and it is that the only factor of affecting the one-dimensional system passenger traffic is the system itself. On the basis of establishing the natural evolution model, the evolutionary stage of one-dimensional passenger flow system was analyzed, which is divided into the initial, growth, maturity and stable stage. Secondly, according to the realities of urban transport in China, rail transport and conventional bus consists a two-dimensional passenger system, On the basis of establishing the evolution model of the two-dimensional competitive passenger system, the stability of the competitive effect and the cooperative effect were studied. Combined with evolutionary theory, take Guangzhou as a case study in this paper, the four different stages of intense competition, ease competition, positive co-operation and ease co-operation evolution of a two-dimensional passenger system were analyzed. The results showed that the initial large-scale passenger sub-system can survive and grow to develop, while the initial small-scale passenger sub-system will be eliminated in the intense competitive stage, the sub-system only with strong competitive strength will survive and grow to develop in the ease competition stage, each passenger systems are able to survive and to achieve their expected size in the positive co-operation and ease co-operation stage. Finally, the evolution model of the three-dimensional passenger system was established, which consists of urban rail transit, bus rapid transit and conventional bus. The three-dimensional passenger system is very complex, so it is reduced the dimension using the projection method. Its equilibrium points and the stability of the three-dimensional system were analysis, take Guangzhou as a case study several typical competitive situations of the three-dimensional passenger system. The results showed that the sub-system with competitive situation will be eliminated, only when three passenger subsystems are with cooperative state, each subsystem can coexist and continue to grow and develop.