Study on Risk Management of Total Water Withdrawal Control in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River

Heihe River is the second largest continental river in northwest China, with diverse geomorphic unit, complex relationship of water transformation, fragile ecological environment, increasingly prominent and sensitive features of the shortage of water resources. Total water withdrawal control is an important means of the most strict water resources management system in our country, to implement total water withdrawal control in Heihe River basin is helpful to promote the coordinated of the social economy and ecological environment in the watershed even sustainable development. Due to the randomness of the water resources system (rainfall, runoff and other), and the uncertainty of regional economic and social development level and the human withdrawal water, total water withdrawal control process has inevitably risk. Based on the previous research results and the actual situation in the middle reaches of Heihe River, the risk of total water withdrawal control is calculated and analyzed, and the corresponding risk control measures of risk management is come up to guide the implementation of total water withdrawal control in the middle reaches of Heihe River, and promote the coordinated development of the social economy and environment. The paper main job has the following:(1) Risk analysis of total water withdrawal control system in the middle reaches of Heihe River is studied. Access to domestic and international risk related literature, Based on the status of implementation and system characteristics of total water withdrawal control in the middle reaches of Heihe River, the risk mechanism is analyzed, and its definition is proposed. Based on the identification and risk factors, the corresponding risk accident tree is established.(2) Risk assessment system of total water withdrawal control in the middle reaches of Heihe River is built Based on the risk mechanism and definition,a risk framework constituted by the risk resistance, vulnerability, bearing risks of water is Proposed, under which a more comprehensive risk of total water withdrawal control in the middle reaches of Heihe River is build, which including three layers:goal layer, criterion layer, and index layer, then the specific meaning and quantitative methods of various indicators are given.(3) Risk assessment model of total water withdrawal control in the middle reaches of Heihe River is set up, then the risk is calculated and analyzed. Risk calculation method was constructed which constituted by the weighted comprehensive evaluation method, the level of entropy analysis and comprehensive risk index method, and according to the comprehensive risk index the risk is divided into five levels. On the basis of related data collection in the social economy and water resources, the risk of2005to2010is calculated, the calculated result shows that the risk level of total water withdrawal control in the middle reaches of Heihe River is restrictive risk level, and the risk size in the middle reaches shows space differences.(4) Risk control of total water withdrawal control in the middle reaches of Heihe River, and the risk management measures is given. Based on the hierarchical entropy analysis results, main risk indicators are found out. In view of the risk control target, separate regulation and co-regulation of the main indicators is taken, the risk control result shows that through the co-regulation will be able to realize the control target, at the same time the recommended risk control scheme is given, and the corresponding risk control strategies and measures are put forward.