Analysis in Agricultural Products Trade between China and ASEAN
|School||Guizhou College of Finance and Economics|
|Keywords||Gravity Model Agricultural product China Asean|
In the background of economic globalization, regional economy integration is growing vigorously, and the internationalisation of Agriculture, which is the basic industry of the national economy, has become the world trend. In the process of integration in east Asian, the foucs on China-Asean cooperation is always the exchanges and cooperation in agriculture. However, both China and Asean have its own advantages from their respective characteristics, and they share competitive and complementarities in the agricultural trade field. After China– Asean Free Trade Area being initiated on January 1,2010 , Agricultural trade among regions has been a concern of both sides. Taking China– Asean Free Trade Area as the research background, this paper firstly reviews agricultural trade realities of China and Asean, and summarizes structure features of agricultural trade between them. Then it analyses competitive in agricultural trade on the basis of their own advantages. There is not only competitive, but also complementarity in agricultural trade between China and Asean, and the paper emphatically analyses the latter from complementation of resources and technology, discussing the future potential of agricultural trade.China and Asean have different levels of economic development.The differences between them, such as geological position, agricultural resources endowment, production condition, producing technology, market and so on, influence agricultural trade. Taking Indonesia, Malaysia, Burma, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam for samples, this paper uses data from year 2005 to 2010, and does regression analysis of agricultural trade between China and seven countries of Asean by means of Gravity Model of Trade, to find the decisive factors of influencing agricultural trade.The results of the model show that the important factors, which dicide the values of agricultural trade between China and Asean, are level of economic deve-lopment(GDP), required capacity(GDP Per Capita), population, transportation costs distance, and so on. These explanatory variables have higher significance level. Agricultural trade between China and Asean is based on complementarity, and agricultural products, that are used for import and export, are most primary products and low value-added products. With the development of economy, the original reason for limitting the development of Agricultural trade is that both sides have Stronger desire to cooperate on high- tech products than farm products.Thus, after knowing the influencing factors, future potentials and challenges of agricultural trade between China and Asean, this paper finally puts forward relevant policy suggestions mainly from four aspects,which are strategies of speeding up development of regional cooperation, strategies of proposing international cooperation, products strategies, talent strategies.