Research on the Vulnerability Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Henan Province
|Keywords||agricultural drought disaster vulnerability assessment Analytic Hierarchy Process EntropyMethod Henan Province|
Henan Province as a major agricultural province in China, the major grain-producing province,due to the special topography and climate conditions, agricultural drought has become a major weatherdisasters affecting the national economy and people’s livelihood, agricultural drought disaster and therefore,reduce the vulnerability of agricultural drought, the promotion of Rise of Central China, to safeguard foodproduction, as well as the sustainable development of agriculture has a very important significance.According to the theory of regional disaster vulnerability, agricultural drought is the result of theinteraction between drought hazard and agricultural drought vulnerability, namely “agricultural drought=drought+agricultural drought vulnerability”. Agricultural drought occurrence of agricultural droughtvulnerability is existing in the agricultural systems of agricultural drought vulnerability exposed,as to(precipitation)difficult to control, mitigationt is the key to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural drought.According to the natural disaster system theory, the formation of agricultural drought in Henan Provinceis an agricultural system(including disaster-causing factors,disasters-pregnant environment,hazard-bearingbody)of the result of various elements the mutual influence and mutual restriction. Based on the abovetheory, this paper first analyzes the hazard mechanism of agricultural drought disaster; subsequentlyanalyzed from the point of view of both the natural environment and socio-economic vulnerability factorsaffecting the agricultural drought in Henan Province; Finally, select from the two aspects of sensitivity andrestorative index system.Through data collection, field survey and analysis of GIS technology, using AHP and entropyvalue method,establish the index system and mathematical models,108cities and counties in HenanProvince of agricultural drought vulnerability has carried on the initial evaluation, the followingconclusions:(1) Henan drought high frequency, the affected area is large, long duration, affecting a wide range,weight loss,the agricultural drought is given priority to with spring drought and summer drought, andregional differences, the north emphasis on the south,west than the east;(2) Henan province drought-formative factors are varied (uneven seasonal distribution ofprecipitation and water shortages), hazard inducing environment is complex(topographic relief is larger,complex geomorphic type,various types of soil), fragile hazard-affected body(high populationdensity and large proportion of agricultural population);(3) In this paper, the weighted comprehensive model to calculate the1990,2000,2008fragiledegree of108counties of henan province, Henan agricultural drought vulnerability can be divided intolow, medium and high three.1990high degree of vulnerability of agricultural drought in Henan Province,medium vulnerability in2000, low vulnerability in2008. Throughout the three period of vulnerable degreesof change, vulnerability as a whole is in a downward trend, different levels of vulnerability to changes inthe distribution, according to the proportion three levels of vulnerability at the same time, you can also beseen, Henan Agricultural drought to low vulnerability direction. Specifically, the low vulnerability mainlyin northern Henan, Henan, western Henan Pingdingshan, eastern of Henan Kaifeng and the south of HenanXinyang,these areas is low sensitivity and high recovery areas; high vulnerability concentrated in the westof Henan Province, Luoyang, Sanmenxia, the Eastern Henan Shangqiu, Zhoukou, and the south of HenanZhumadian, Nanyang some counties and cities, these areas are precisely the areas of high sensitivity andlow recovery. It can be found that the vulnerability of agricultural drought is the result of the interaction ofagricultural drought sensitivity and restorative. Combined with the vulnerability assessment index systemof agricultural drought in Henan Province, Henan Province, agricultural drought vulnerability level ismainly affected by the impact of the socio-economic level.