Dissertation > Agricultural Sciences > Forestry > Forest Protection > Forest fire > Forecasting of forest fires

Study on Forest Fire Danger Forecasting for the Mountain Microenvironment

Author GaoKaiTong
Tutor LiuPengJu
School Chinese Academy of Forestry
Course Forest Management
Keywords forest fire danger rating fuel meteorological factor forest combustibilityevaluation
CLC S762.2
Type Master's thesis
Year 2013
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Fire prevention is not only an important work of the International Strategy for DisasterReduction, but also the important constituent part of biodiversity, global change andsustainable development. Forest fire prediction is a prerequisite for the prevetion of forest fire,improve the science, timeliness, accuracy is one research hotspots of the forest fire, it hasimportant significance for the realization of forest fire mangement in scientific andstandardized.Forest fire danger grade is a measurement to possibility and extend degree offorest fire happen, forest fire danger is affected by a lot of factors, fuel and meteorological arethe most important influencing factors. Meteorological factors is a significant impact on thefire and easy to change, mountain small environment produces complex and volatile effect onmeteorological factors, thus affecting the changes in forest fire danger rating.By studying a small mountainous environment surface fuel load, flammability, forestmeteorological factors and the fuel moisture variation, establishment of surface fuel moistureprediction model. We proposed a method of forest fire risk grade forecast method based on thestudy of meteorological factor calculation and generation technology for sub-compartment offorest resources.The main conclusions were summarized follows:(1)The variation of meteorological factors in mountain:Meteorological factors is asignificant impact on the fire and easy to change, terrain and vegetation have significantlyaffect on meteorological factor. We studied the air temperature, relative humidity, wind speeddiurnal, monthly trends and laws, based on Sensors monitoring network monitoring data. Theresults showed that the temperature and humidity in forest, undergrowth, different slope s, hassame diurnal variation and monthly trend. however, the size of meteorological factors changessignificantly. Shady average temperature-1.67℃, sunny average temperature of-1.01℃,sunny than shady high0.66℃; shady average air humidity of37.07%, sunny average airhumidity33.45%, sunny slope than the high3.62%. (2)Surface fuel moisture prediction model: By studying the fuel moisture correlationwith meteorological factors, Using multiple regression method in SPSS software build the litterlayer, the non-decomposed layer′s moisture prediction models of continus coggygria, pinustabulaeformis and platycladus orientalis.The accuary of the model need to be upgraded.(3) The test of surface fuel combustion: The combustion of fuel is an important indicatorof the degree of difficulty of forest fire, based on the field ignition experiment, the initialignition moisture of different fuel type was obtained, continus coggygria up to17.91%,followed by pinus tabulaeformis13.26%, the platycladus orientalis as low as9.81%.The test showed that with the reduced of the fuel moisture, its spread rate were graduallyincreased.Five fire danger ratings of fuel types were classified on the basis of initial ignitionmoisture and combustion.(4) Fire weather forecasting method of forest sub-compartments:We proposed a new fireweather forecasting method based on the MTCLIM model and the WindNinja software, studiedthe calculation and generation techniques of forest fire danger factors in sub-compartment, andrealized the fast fire weather forecast for forest sub-compartment. The results show that thismethod is easy to implement, of good universality, and can calculate quickly the temporal andspatial variation of the fire danger levels of forest sub-compartments. Thus it has goodguidance and reference significance to improve the work of fire fighting and prevention.

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