The Study of Labor Demand and Supply Trends2010-2050
|Keywords||Population Trends Labor Supply Demand|
Since the early1970s, with the family planning policy, economic and social development, population dynamics and labor supply and demand conditions have major shifts. After reviewing the previous studies on the trend of the population and labor supply and demand of the history, this paper analysis China’s development trend sof the population and labor supply. The following conclusions:First, China’s total population growth is almost completed. China will arrive the peak of its total population after2025, China’s population growth is almost completed. Chinese population peak arrival time is earlier than expected.Second, the peak of the working-age population in China has come. China is in a period of greatest number of working-age population and economically active population. The peak of the working-age population has already fallen. It is inevitable that the size of the working age population in2020will continue to decrease. Moreover, the percent of working-age population to the total population will rapidly decline.Third, China’s labor force participation rate will continue to decline. Since the reform and open policy, China’s labor force participation rate has been at a high state until the early1990s it began a slow downward trend.Fourth, China’s current labor market supply and demand balance. Basic balance of China’s labor market’s supply and demand in general is going through "labor shortage" phenomenon. It is a structural shortage and relates to how industrial structure and human resources training adapt to market demand.Labor market supply and demand situation has undergone a fundamental reversal. China’s future economic growth mode is bound to get rid of low-cost, high investment and labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries in order to maintain industrial competitiveness, but should gradually shift to the mode by raising the technical level and increase the human capital investment.In order to better respond to the transformation of China’s population and labor supply changes, this paper makes a few suggestions:(1) to adjust the fertility policy to maintain the population capacity for sustainable development;(2) to encourage labor force participation, mitigation contradiction of the future labor shortages;(3) the elimination of institutional barriers to promote free movement of labor;(4) the establishment of a unified labor market, improve the efficiency of labor allocation;(5) to strengthen the employment service system.Huge amount of labor in China, highlight the urban-rural dual structure, the existing research in the labor supply and demand and labor structure remain more controversial. Part of the calculation and prediction methods may need improvement. This article on the definition of surplus labor in rural China in the past labor is why a lot of excess, surplus labor in the countryside, rural surplus labor is exactly the number of issues as a tentative answer.Finally, this paper believes that the labor supply gap is increasing, the economic development of China will have a significant impact: to promote the economic growth pattern; promote income distribution situation to improve; to promote the balanced development of regional economy. In addition, labor shortages will also raise the China venture threshold, the optimization of industrial structure and even the rise and fall of the nation, and world-wide inflation, the price system in the world to re-position have a profound impact.