An Anylisis on the Influence of Birth Rate Factor in Population-outflow Areas
|School||Nanjing University of Finance and Economics|
|Keywords||Floating population Fertility rate Structural Equation Model|
Along with China’s fertility rate falling to the low fertility level, an increasingnumber of researchers become concern of the causes of this phenomenon and thecausing factors. They mainly focus on the effects on fertility level brought by thesocial economic development and the changes of family planning policy. In our studywe find that the rapid decline of birth rate in China coincides with the expanding scaleof flow population in the perspective of time. To examine this phenomenon, this paperchooses Hunan province as a representitive province by its outflow population,analysing the influencing factors on the fertility rate from the angle of populationflow.Based on previous theoretical and empirical research, the first part of this paperexpounds the population flow’s impact on the fertility rate, analyses the factors thateffect fertility rate by constructing a theoretical model for it; it also selects appropriatestatistical indicators. The second part gives a descriptive statistical analysis of thepresent situation of population and fertility in Hunan province. And the effect ofoutflow on Hunan province fertility is inspected by using the fourth and fifth nationalcensus of population datas, which aims at providing a base for further empiricalresearch. The Amos software is used by contrasting a structural equation model tomake fit the statistical data of Hunan in2000and to analyze how and to what degreethe involving factors effect. In the last part, based on the result of previous empiricalanalysis, the differences of influencing factors’ impact are compared by analyzingJiangsu province as a representative of population-inflow provinces.According to the above analysis, the main conclusions are:(1) The pace of Hunanprovince populatio growth tends to be slow, accounts for the national total populationhas steadily decreased. But the total population has been staying in the forefront of thecountry. Aging of the bottom and the top has been occurred at the same time in thepopulation age structure. Its reproduction may appear negative growth trend in thefuture.(2) Hunan province has quickly completed the transition of the birth rate fromhigh to low level. The family planning policy has been implemented effectively, butthe policy control efforts of early childbearing and much childbearing should befurther strengthened.(3) According to the study of the fouth and fifth national censusof population datas, population outflow has a significant influence on Hunan provincefertility.(4) Social and economic factors and demographic factors have consistent effect on fertility level. But the effect of the former direction is negative, the lattereffect is in the right direction.(5) With the comparison and analysis of the influencingfactors on Jiangsu province’s fertility rate, it is found that the direction of populationflow can cause changes of influencing factors of the fertility rate. Thus, based on theconclusions, the following policy suggestions are put forward: to make practicalpolicy to adjust birth control; to carry out birth control work according to the status ofpopulation development; to promote a balanced development between theemployment of floating population and the structure of urban industry; to establishand improve the information exchange and management mechanism in bothpopulation inflow and outflow areas.Furthermore, as China’s sixth national census of population is finished successfully,after the data is released, using it to test and fefine the work is a follow-up to one ofthe most important work.