Research on Energy Consumption Analysis and Energy Demand Forecast of Traffic Transport Industry in Jilin Province
|Course||Traffic Environment and Safety Technology|
|Keywords||transportation energy consumption energy command learningcurves coordination degree co-integration analysis|
Transportation is one of important component of the national economy, plays afundamental role to support and service the development of the national economy. Itscharacteristic decided that when transportation industry provides the services ofpassenger or freight displacement, a large amount of energy consumption and anegative impact to the ecological environment will be inevitably generated. Currently,Jilin province economy is experiencing a rapid growth period. Economic growth, theacceleration of the urbanization process and the rapid increase of motor vehicles, leadto a rapid increase of transportation needs and services. Consequently, the transportsector’s energy consumption, especially the consumption of petroleum products arealso increasing rapidly. Analysis and research the transport sector energy consumptionand economic development of Jilin Province, as well as to predict the future demandfor energy, has certain practical significance for the harmonious development of thetransport industry as well as the healthy operation of the entire socio-economic.Therefore, traffic transport energy consumption and energy demand forecasts of JilinProvince is researched in this paper.In this paper, based on technical economics, resource and environmentaleconomics, econometrics of Jilin Statistical Yearbook, Jilin Statistical Yearbook oftraffic, the new China60years of statistical data compilation, China Energy StatisticalYear book and China Statistical Yearbook statistics, and using SPSS and Eview ofstatistics and modeling software to analyze transportation industry development statusof Eleventh Five-Year of Jilin Province,the energy consumption model and predictionmodel based on multi-factor co-integration analysis of Jilin Province was constructedbased on the learning curve. The harmonious relations between energy consumptionof Jilin Province and the national economy are analyzed from macro and microperspective. Through in-depth studys, important results and conclusions are obtainedas follow:(1) Through analysis of energy consumption and the development status of thenational economy trends of Jilin Province, energy consumption and economic growthrelationship is estimated; based on historical data to build environment learningcurves between the output value of energy consumption and GDP per capital and analyze energy consumption of Jilin province. The results showed that: the outputvalue of energy consumption decays as exponential form with the increase of percapita GDP growth, and the line pipe coefficients are mostly above0.9. Throughanalyzing environmental curves of other typical provinces, the location of energyconsumption level of Jilin Province in the whole country is determined.(2) Using the ratio of transportation energy consumption and the total socialenergy consumption, as well as the ratio of traffic transport output value and the entiresociety GDP to study the co-integration level between transportation energyconsumption and economic development of Jilin province. The results showed thatJilin province locates in the upper level in whole country. Using transportation energyconsumption elasticity coefficient and transportation energy consumption intensityindicator and through horizontal and vertical comparison with the other provinces toanalyze the coordination of transport energy consumption and socio-economicdevelopment of Jilin province from microscopic perspective. The results show that theincrease in traffic output and gross national product in Jilin Province need to consumemore transportation energy consumption at the expense.(3) The impact factors that affect the transportation industry energy consumptionin Jilin Province were determined through analyzing energy demand influencingfactors in Jilin Province. The impact factors are: transportation GDP, motor vehicleownership, transportation turnover and fuel price levels. Using Eview software topredict the transportation energy demand in Jilin Province and build a multi-factorpredictive model. The results showed that: the relationship between totaltransportation energy consumption and its influencing factors in Jilin Province areequilibrium co-integration for a long term. The elasticity coefficient between thetransport sector energy demand and its influencing factors were:1,0.85,0.7,1.14,-0.04, respectively. The values show that economic growth, the rise in transportturnover and increase in vehicle ownership of Jilin Province has obvious influence ontransport sector energy demand. However, Fuel price has less effect on that. That ismainly due to the macro level of the State to regulate fuel price and limit price factorsinfluence the intensity of demand for energy. The regression model was builtsignificant residual stability. And the final prediction effect of the model is good.