The Research on the Layout and Development of Bioenergy Industry in Hubei Rural Area
|School||Huazhong Agricultural University|
|Course||Agricultural Economics and Management|
|Keywords||Rural Bio-energy Benefit Evaluation Industry Layout IndustryDevelopment Multi-objective Planning|
With the accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization, the continuing upgrade of consumption structure, China’s energy demand was in rigid growth. With the constraints of both domestic resources supporting capacity and environmental capacity, and the impacts of global energy security and climate change, the constraints of resource and environmental have been increasingly strengthening. Biomass resources are rich in Chinese rural areas, but have not exploited for the past long time. Stable supply of raw materials has become the important issue of the sustainable development of bio-energy industry in China. Therefore, taking the bio-energy industry as research object, and the energy security and environmental protection as research background, this paper analyses the layout and development of bio-energy industry in Hubei rural areas under the constraints of available biomass resources and available land, by using ARIMA predict model, industrial scale controlling model based on multi-objective planning, a GIS-based visualized location-chosen model for bio-energy processing enterprises, and an integrated effectiveness evaluation system for the development of bio-energy industry. Combing the implementation experience and practice of EU’s bio-energy industry, the policy recommendations have been put forward for the development of bio-energy industry in Hubei province. The main contents and conclusions are as the follows:Firstly, the status quo of the renewable energy development and utilization in Hubei rural areas has been analyzed. The study shows that:(1) household biogas and large-scale biogas project in Hubei province has been greatly developed. However, some problems were also exposed in the process of the development and utilization, including the lack of biogas craftsmen, lack of technical support, seasonable imbalance of the biogas supply, the incomplete work of "three reforms", the lack of refresh of disease and old pools;(2) while crop straw resources are rich in Hubei, only a very limited proportion of them have been used to convert bio-energy, which is lass then1%. The main constraints of using crop straw to convert bio-energy are the imperfect collect and transport system, high costs, inadequate policies, immature technologies, and so on;(3) using the non grain materials to produce liquid biofuels is the main point during the development of bio-energy industry. Now the Hubei government is arranging the production of bioethanol from sweet potato and lignocellulosic biomass. Some raw material bases have been constructed, but the large-scale production has not been started.Secondly, the potential of different kinds of biomass resources in Hubei rural areas has been evaluated, according to the data of the past30years. The results show that Hubei province has a huge potential in terms of biomass resources. That is to say the amount of biomass resources in Hubei rural areas will be872,299,600tons in2015. Specifically, this includes45,548,500tons of agricultural residues,652,196,200tons of woody biomass and176,379,400tons of livestock manure. Theoretically, all the biomass resources in Hubei can be converted into bio-energy which is equal to477,766,300tons of standard coal. With the development of technology and relevant industry, such as breeding industry, these figures may be increased. After all, Hubei acquired the condition to develop the agri-bioenergy industry.Thirdly, the integrated benefit of developing bio-energy industry in rural area has been evaluated. During the study an integrated evaluation system has been created and the analysis hierarchy process has been used to evaluate the integrated benefit of agri-bioenergy industry in Hubei. Based on the study mentioned above, we can come to the following conclusion:when considering the general objective, the economic benefit weights0.3213, the ecological benefit weights0.4484and the social benefits weights0.2302. The quantitative assessment result indicates that because the integrated benefits of solidification technology obviously outweigh the benefits of biomass gasification technology and large-scale biogas engineering, it is reasonable to set the densification briquetting fuel as the main developing direction in the future of Hubei bioenergy industry. The biomass gasification enterprises in different regions achieved the similar score during integrated benefit evaluation, but in the detailed index there were some slight differences. The same thing also happened between two large-scale biogas engineering enterprises. Therefore the biomass gasification technology and biogas production by biomass fermentation technology are well developed and can be put into large-scale popularization and application. The material diversity may account for the slight differences in detailed index. In the future, the research work needs to force on the comprehensive utilization of different kinds of biomass material, and the breakthrough and integration of key technologies.Fourthly, rural bio-energy industry layout has been designed. According to per capital and per unit area possession of biomass resources, this study counted and analysed the biomass resources density in different cities of Hubei. And considering the topographical distribution characters of Hubei province, we designed the corresponding bio-energy industry layout. In according to the layout, Hubei province has been divided into four parts:grain production area, cotton production area, animal breeding area and mountain area, and then made the detailed design.Fifthly, combined with the industry development goals, Hubei rural bio-energy developing scale has been analyzed and calculated through mathematic modeling. Then taking2percent or10percent of the total available land for industrial construction as constraints, the future scale of the development of biomass industry in different regions of Hubei Province has been planned. The result shows that no matter in which condition, the amount of produced bio-energy is huge and the effect of reducing the greenhouse gas emission is obvious. Under the land restriction of2%, the prospective bio-energy amount is equal to2,584,888tons of standard coal, and at the same time the reduction of greenhouse gas emission will be10,636,545tons. However, when the land restriction is10%, the prospective bio-energy amount will be14,482,615tons of standard coal, and the greenhouse emission decrease will be53,049,379tons. Based on the calculation mentioned above, the paper discussed the GIS-based visualized location-chosen model and method, and provided the theory reference to Hubei bio-energy decision-making.Sixthly, the implementation experiences and practice of EU’s bio-energy industry have been analysed, and then the recommendations about Hubei bio-energy industry distribution and development have been proposed. Developing circular agriculture in appropriate regions, promoting the application of densification briquetting fuel, and popularizing straw biogas, straw gasification and electricity produced by biomass can help the industry layout scheme come true. By the way, whether the government could find suitable subsidies and stimulus, and guide and support the bio-energy development or not play a determine role on the initial stage of bio-energy industry development. The connection between the industry chains, the management within the industry system and the stable supply of raw materials are also need to be considered seriously.