Comprehensive Measure and Influential Factors of Fragility of Commercial Bank System in China
|School||Changsha University of Science and Technology|
|Keywords||China Commercial Bank System Different Kinds of Commercial Banks Fragility Comprehensive Measure Influential Factors Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Analytic Hierarchy Process|
With global financial crisis burst in 2008, a large number of banks closed downincluding Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and so on. It is indicated that the fragility of banksystem become deeply, and the authority and the public pay more attestation to bank systemrisk again. At the same time, relative indicators such as capital adequacy ratio, not-performingloan ratio, rate of assets of commercial bank system in China are reaching at internationalstandards. The development of our banking industry is strong and powerful. Whether it ismeans that there is no fragility of commercial bank system in China are still in discussions.The thesis will make comprehensive measure of fragility of commercial bank system, analyzetheir influential factors, and try to find out the deep-seated reason for which less affectionfrom global financial crisis to banking industry in China.The object of this thesis is commercial bank system in China, mainly on two aspects: onis the fragility and influential factors of the whole commercial bank system in China, the otheris systems of the four commercial banks including Stated-owned Commercial Bank,Joint-shock Commercial Bank, City Commercial Bank and Rural Commercial Bank. Thecomprehensive measurement process choose indicators by DEMATEL to make up fragilityindex of the whole commercial bank system, 5 indicators to make up fragility index forsystems of the four commercial banks respectively by using both FCE and AHP. Empiricalanalysis adopts multivariable linear regression model. Empirical results show that there are 11years is fragile and 7 years stable of our commercial bank system from 1993 to 2010, andfragility of Stated-owned Commercial Bank and City Commercial Bank are higher than theother two in the beginning, but lower in the end. Specially, Joint-shock Commercial Bank isfragile than other three types. Financial environment indexes are significant thanmacroeconomic index, banking industry’s market concentration, spread between debt andcredit of one-year deposit, adjust range of deposit reserve ratio, and market share of foreignbanks show strong combination between fragility of each commercial banks.Analyze survive and development of our commercial bank system, besides the restrictionof banking industry’s self-condition, its fragility comes more from financial environment andpolicies. In the end, the thesis give some proposed measures from macroeconomic environment, financial environment and micro banking body for strengthening the stability ofour commercial bank system and promoting our banking industry keeping healthydevelopment.