Land Use Scale Research of Jinan Comprehensive Bonded Zone Based on Classificatory Logistics Quantity
|School||Ocean University of China|
|Keywords||Comprehensive Bonded Zone Logistics Quantity ForecastingModel Land Use Scale|
Comprehensive Bonded Zone will become a new model in the modern logisticsdevelopment through promote industrial cluster, efficiently integrate land resource,and optimize logistics service procedure. People gradually recognize thatComprehensive Bonded Zone brings outstanding benefits for development ofeconomics and society and it develops rapidly in many areas of country. ShandongProvince, as a major economics province, there has huge amount and fastdevelopment in foreign trade and demand of bonded logistics also has expansion.Therefore, Comprehensive Bonded Zone is effective platform to help thedevelopment of export-oriented economy of Midwest Area of Shandong and promotethe pace of industry adjustment, if set up Comprehensive Bonded Zone in Jinan,Capital city of Shandong. But according to China Federation of Logistics&Purchasing survey report shows that nowadays a large number and scale of BondedLogistics Zone are existed in our country, and some zones lack of government’soverall programs and administration. These zones don’t satisfy the constructionrequirement of regional layout in a reasonable way due to lack of governmentmanagement. Meanwhile, most of Logistics Zone only pursues the large scale andmultiple functions, even the phenomenon of hoarding land happened.The issues we facing are land resource waste caused by oversize constructionzone or unsatisfied demand caused by undersize construction zone. In order to avoidissues above, this paper, based on the relevant literature both at home and abroad，willintroduce how to use the method of combined prediction to measure the logisticsquantity, thus gain the relatively accurate land scale for Jinan Comprehensive BondedZone to use land resource in an effective way.Through research the function of Jinan Comprehensive Bonded Zone, this paperclassifies this zone into four function industries: electromechanical, textile,high-technology, and export processing trade, and use these four logistics quantity asbasic data. This paper finds that classification of logistics quantity presents nonlineardistribution and performs exponential distribution trait to some extent. Thereby, aftercompared traits, application scope and prediction time-span of time series predictionmethods, regression analysis, and neural network, this paper selects third-indexflatness, GM(1,1) grey forecast and BP neural network to analyze and forecast classificatory logistics quantity. In order to minimize levels of prediction errors andimprove the accuracy, this paper takes non-optimal weight method to set up theoptimal weight combined forecasting model and gain logistics quantity’s predictivevalue in next five years by linear combination; thus, make the final forecast date.Furthermore, to confirm land scale of Jinan Comprehensive Bonded Zone through theadjusted parameter method to calculate.This paper gains reasonable land sale of Jinan Comprehensive Bonded Zone andsatisfied demand of bonded logistics in next five years by forecast of classificatorylogistics quantity. This paper could have significant value for determining the scale ofcomprehensive bonded zone.