Dissertation > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods

Real Estate Policy, Money Supply on Real Estate Price Fluctuations

Author WangWenYuan
Tutor LiuYang
School Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course Finance
Keywords real estate prices Real estate policy money supply Granger test error correction model
CLC F822;F224
Type Master's thesis
Year 2011
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From the money supply impact on real estate prices angles, on the one hand by theoretical analysis of changes in money supply affect the real estate market, real estateprice changes and money supply after the reaction; the other hand, through the time series Analysis, the use from January 2001 to December 2010 time series data of 120groups of real estate sales prices, the monthly inter-bank weighted average lendingrate, the monthly money supply data, and analysis of monthly data of industrial added value, including the ADF Test, cointegration test and Granger test, and finally through theerror correction model to find short-term fluctuationsThe results show that long-term relationship from the point of view, real estate sales prices and money supply two-way causal relationship exists, the industrial added value and the money supply, it is only in the amount from the money supply to the industrial added value of individual causation. And real estate sales in the industrial added value between the price, there is only from the added value to real estate sales prices causal relationship between the individual, that rapid economic development will lead to real estate sales prices. The real estate market is dependent on the money supply and the long term is very large, but short-term volatility is very small, which explains the characteristics of the real estate market, short-term rigidity.

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