Research of the Financial Crisis Early Warning on Real Estate Listed Companies in China
|School||Dongbei University of Finance|
|Keywords||real estate financial crisis the model of crisis warming financialindicators non-financial indicators|
Financial crisis early warning has always belonged to the forefront of the financial management theory, but from the research point of view at home and abroad in recent decades, most of the research is focused on all listed companies, and does not distinguish between specific industries. Difference in profession makes one feel worlds apart, the financial data of the different industries will have their own unique characteristics, and also their own will be somewhat relied on. Therefore, the financial crisis early warning research by industry is necessary, and helpful to promote the further development of the theory of financial crisis in our country. Real estate is a leading and pillar industry in national economy, which has the characteristics of high investment, high risk, high-profit. Compared with other industries, real estate has clear industry characteristics; plus, in recent years, Chinese high housing prices and real estate control policy which is frequently introduced, pose serious challenges to the real estate developers. Therefore, the latent, early warning and prevention of financial crisis in the real estate should be given more attention. The real estate financial crisis early warning system is imperative to establish.The central idea of this article is the financial crisis early warning. Based on real estate industry, the research tries to establish a system of early warning indicators, which reflect the characteristics of the real estate industry. Through logistic regression analysis, this article expects to build a targeted and ideal real estate financial crisis early-warning model-the Logit model. The article consists of the following seven sections:The first part is the introduction. This section first describes the background and significance of the study, and then through the Introduction and Review of the situation of domestic and international financial crisis early warning system, puts forward the idea of this study, and possible innovation.The second part is the overview of financial crisis early warning. This part introduces the theoretical knowledge of the financial crisis early warning:the concept of "financial crisis" and the theoretical basis of the financial crisis early warning.The third part is the financial crisis of real estate listed companies. This section first introduces the concept and characteristics of the real estate industry, and then introduces the real estate status quo, the last section is a specific analysis of the real estate listing of the company’s financial crisis, lay the foundation for the later real estate financial crisis early warning.The fourth part is the design of the real estate financial crisis early warning research. This section includes four aspects:first, determine the study sample; second, compare and select econometric model of the financial crisis early warning; third, establish early warning indicator system; fourth, the significant test to choose variables, factor analysis to get the final model explanatory variables.The fifth part is regression analysis and test. First, according to the explanatory variables, use Logit regression analysis method to get real estate financial crisis early-warning model; then through its coefficient test, discrimination test and so on, focused on observation of the model prediction accuracy.The sixth part is the empirical result. Empirical results show that:to the point of financial crisis years (T), the Logit model prediction accuracy rate decreased gradually as the year onward, the warning is getting worse, but the prediction of the previous two years is ideal.The seventh part of the study is the inadequacies and prospect.The innovation in this article may be firstly reflected on choosing sample more scientifically and rationally. While trying to research the real estate financial crisis early warning system, we select early warning indicators, such as financial indicators:the financial expense ratio, debt structure ratio indicators, etc, combined with the characteristics of the real estate industry. At the same time, we also add the non-financial indicators of ownership concentration, board structure, irregularities, the audit opinion, to further improve the financial crisis early warning indicator system. On this basis, by the factor analysis, Logistic regression analysis and other research methods to explore the applicability of the Logit model for the study of Chinese real estate financial crisis early warning.