Dissertation
Dissertation > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > Economic construction and development

Study on the Impacts of the Changes in the International Demands Upon China’s Economic Structure

Author TaoJunDao
Tutor GaoXinCai
School Lanzhou University
Course Regional Economics
Keywords the international demand the economic structure the impact empirical analysis
CLC F124
Type PhD thesis
Year 2013
Downloads 218
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The economic structure with the features of high-input, high-export, high-saving and double-surplus has come into being in China along with the rapid economic development. As the result, the proportions between the consumption, the investment and the external demands have become critical imbalanced. And the government institutions and the academy have attached a lot of attentions on this issue. Moreover, the studies on the impacts upon China’s economic structure in the majority of domestic literature were focusing on domestic factors. And then, the endogeneity can hardly be avoided in those studies. Therefore, with the adoption of the theoretical analysis and econometric approaches and on the basis of the periodical characteristics of Chinese economic development, this paper is to look at the impacts of the changes in the international demands upon China’s economic structure in more details.The studies and the results have been finished and achieved by this paper are mainly as follows:1. It is to look at the characteristics and the representation forms of the demand changes of the four selected representatives of the developed countries including the United States of America, Japan, Germany and France in the past10years with the adoption of the statistic and the comparative analysis approaches. As the results, the study shows that the final consumption rates of the developed countries have been declined at different degrees. And the developed countries have seen continuous weakness in their investment demands. Besides this, because of different economic development levels, the import rate varies as well. More specifically, the import rates of Germany and France are comparatively higher. And that of the United States of America and of Japan is lower. However, all in all, the demands of the developed countries are declined after the outbreak of the international financial crisis in2008.2. It is to look at the characteristics and the representation forms of the demand changes of the four selected representatives of the emerging market countries including Russia, South Africa, India and Brazil with the adoption of the empirical approaches. As the results, the study shows that the total demands of the emerging market countries are growing in the past10years. And more investment opportunities have been transferred to the emerging market countries since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in2008. Besides this, both the currency demands and the fiscal expenditures of the representative countries are higher than those of the developed countries. Moreover, when you look at the demands of both the emerging market countries and the developed countries in more details, it shows that the demands of the emerging market countries have grown rapidly. However, the demands of the major developed countries still occupy the dominant positions internationally. And the decline of the proportions and the prominence of the developed countries cannot be covered by the increasing of the demands from the emerging market countries in a short time.3. It is to look at the characteristics and the development trends of China’s economic structure from aspects including the demand, the industry, the income and the energy structures through analyzing the relevant statistic data of China from1990to2011with the adoption of the statistic approaches. As the results, the study shows that firstly China’s consumption demand has a relevant poor proportion in total demand with the imbalanced investment and consumption proportions. Secondly, the output structure has been gradually optimized. And the shares of the secondary and the tertiary industries are increasing. However, the mix of the three industries is far less than the expected. Moreover, the changes of the employment structure are behind the changes of the output structure. The tertiary industry is lagging behind others, which has a very limited capacity in generating employment. Next, in the initial distribution of national income, the share of capital return is rising with the decline of the labor remuneration share. And the income between the urban and the rural and of the different regions has shown a great disparity. Finally, there are obvious contradictions between the energy supply and demand. And the high proportion of coal in the overall energy consumption has brought great impacts upon the energy efficiency and the ecological environment.4. It is to look at the impacts of the demand changes of the developed and the emerging market countries upon China’s economic structure with the adoption of the Vector Auto-regression Model and other econometric approaches such as the impulse response function, the variance decomposition and the Granger causality test. As the results, the study shows that the demand changes of both the developed and the emerging market countries have impacts upon China’s economic structure at different degrees. And the United States of America have greater impacts upon China’s economic structure than other developed countries. Moreover, the consumption, the investment, the export and the import of the United States of America have greater impacts upon the consumption, the export and the import, and the income structures of China; the fiscal expenditure of the United States of America has greater impacts upon the investment of China; and the currency demand of the United States of America has greater impacts upon China’s industrial structure. Furthermore, the changes in the fiscal expenditure of the emerging market countries have greater impacts upon the export of China. And the changes in the consumption, the investment, and the import and the export of the emerging market countries have greater impacts upon the export, the tertiary industry, the labor remuneration, and the production and consumption of the coal and the petroleum of China.

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