A New Exploring about the Cause of Economic Cycle

In2002passed the entrance examination, I began to study for my doctorate in statistics. I set myself an explicit goal——using of western macroeconomic theory, econometrics methods and statistics methods to study the issue of china’s economic cycle. After a period of hard work, I established a logistic prediction model about the economic cycle based on actual statistical data of economic variables. The basic idea of the prediction model is a composite of many independent of economic variables changes for value of probability for economic expansion or contraction to the overall level.But when I used the model to carry out economic cycle forecast I found that in the theory of economic cycles there are many serious theory obstacles and doubts. These obstacles and doubts greatly limit the application of the cycle prediction model. These theory obstacles and doubts concentrate on three aspects:①the background of economic cycles;②the formation mechanism of economic cycles;③the length of the economic cycles.And after a period of vast reading, I gradually realized that these obstacles and doubts are fundamental, coming down to the economic cycles of the theory of doubt, it is a fundamental and touch upon the observing method and thinking methods in the western macroeconomic theory.After some anguished hesitation I ventured to interrupt the current study and seek new ways to reexamine the western macro economics in which the economic cycle is a core. This is the original motives of the writing.In this study, I gave up the observational methods and thinking methods in the western macro economics, based on national culture and the standard in Chinese academic tradition, from a unique perspective completely different from western macroeconomics, to observe and explain the economic phenomenon. I observed a man’s eat conduct of ancient ancestors and abstracted out two major functions of "transformation" and "absorption" in "the original economic body" and by the two major functions of the "fission", brought forward those more sophisticated "tools economic body "and" capital economic body". In the dissertation, I also advanced the symbol models and digital models of economic bodies and on this basis reinterpreted the generation mechanisms of economic cycle.The full text can be divided into three parts. The first part of them is introductory theory. The second is the main text, subdivided into book one, book tow and book three. The third part is the conclusion. The concrete contents of each part are as follows:The first part is introductory theory. It sums up those different ideas and theories of the existing the theory of economic cycles and generalizes three major problems:the background of economic cycles, the formation mechanism of economic cycles and the length of the economic cycles and based on this puts forward the idea of comprehensive observation of economic phenomena.Book one in the second part is the original economic body. Based on the observation of a eat conduct of a man of ancient ancestors, it generalizes those two major functions of "transformation" and "absorption". It also analyzes six important attributes of the original economic body. It advances in development the important concepts for stream of economic, surplus of stream of economic and cold and hot property of stream of economic. Finally it makes a graphic description of the original economic body in the course of evolution.Book tow in the second part is the tools economic body. It describes the tools economic body in the course of evolution and the generation of the four phenomena of tool, production, consumption and product. It also describes the macroscopic stream and the microcosmic stream of stream of economy in the tools economic body. It also advanced the symbol models and digital models of the tools economic body and those concepts of hot and cold cycle, hot and cold cycle period and the concept of space-time in economic bodies.Book three in the second part is the capital economic body. It describes the capital economic body in the course of evolution and the generation of the eight phenomena of tool, division of labor, production, product, exchange, consumption, capital and currency. It also advanced the symbol models and digital models of the capital economic body and the concept of stream of consumption economy. Finally it shows by uncovering the generative mechanism of hot and cold cycle period of the capital economic body.The third part is the conclusion. Based on above-mentioned the theoretical analysis in the main text it solves three problems the background of economic cycles, the formation mechanism of economic cycles and the length of the economic cycles from point-blank range.