Study on the Characteristic and Influence Factor of Pork Production and Consumption in China
|School||Nanjing Agricultural College|
|Course||Technology Economics and Management|
|Keywords||Pork Production Pork Consumption Characteristic Influence factor|
Animal husbandry is an important part of agriculture, and it has important influence on the development of national economy and improvement of the quality of life for the residents in China. Ever since the reform and opening up, economy has developed fast with the society civilized, animal husbandry also has developed fast. Its production capacity is increasing day by day, and it provides abundant animal products for people which improves the quality of people’s life. The production value of animal husbandry has been increasing which has an growing proportion of that of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Raising pigs is a key part of animal husbandry which has long history in China and also is primary source of income for farmers in most areas of China. At the same time, pork is a kind of meat which is consumed the most in China. With the development of technology and society, the production and consumption of pork in China express new characteristic. This paper mainly studies the status and characteristic of the production and consumption of pork in China nowadays, and analies the influence factors on the production and consumption of pork, and provides suggestions for making policies.This paper combines the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to study the influence factors on the production and consumption of pork in China, and the degree of influence. First, the paper makes descriptive analysis of the status and characteristic of the production and consumption of pork in China using statistical data, and then, makes quantitative analysis of the influence factors using panel data of thirty provinces in China and double logarithmic model, at last, explains the results. For the production model, the papers selects variables from the following aspects:price, the amount of livestock on hand, technology, animal plague, the levels of education of producer, the transfer of rural labor and the cost of production; for the consumption model, the paper analies the pork consumption for the residents in both urban and rural China, and selects residents’income, the price of pork, consumption habit and the price of substitute goods, such as beef,mutton, chicken and egg,to be independent variables. In the end, the paper makes forecast for main indexes.On the aspect of production, China produces the most pork in the world, and also produces more pork than any other kinds of meat in domestic areas. The pork production in China has obvious characteristics in the following aspects:region, efficiency, food consuming, environment, safety, cost and benefit. Among all the factors which affect pork production, the amount of sows on hand, the price of pork last year, advanced technology, the numbers of labor and the levels of education of producer all have positive effect. The price of fodder last year, the effect of plague and the cost of production have negative effect. On the aspect of consumption, pork is the most popular meat consumed by the residents in China. People’s pork consumption have obvious difference in some aspects, such as urban and rural areas, levels of income, regions, season, different parts of pig, raw and cooked pork. The factors that affect pork consumption have different effect on urban residents and rural residents. For urban residents, income, the price of pork and beef, the consumption habit all have appreciable impact on the pork consumption, meanwhile, the effect of income and the price of pork is negative, and the effect of beef price and consumption habit is positive. For rural residents, only pork price and consumption habit have appreciable impact on the consumption, and have the same results as urban residents, but the degree of influence is more. Income and the price of substitute goods don’t have appreciable impact on the pork consumption of rural residents. According to the forecast, in the following five years, the output of pork is still increasing in China, but at a lower rate. The amount of pork purchased by per person in the urban residents’family is very steady, so, the total level is quite high despite having a lower declining trend. The amount of pork purchased by per person in the rural residents’ family is increasing steadily, but the total level is less than that of urban residents, meanwhile, the spending dine outside of urban residents is growing at a high speed. Then make forecast for the total amount of pork consumption, and the results shows that the residents’total amount of pork consumption grows fast.At present,the production and consumption of pork in China are balanced basically, and the production is larger than the consumption, but the gap between the production and consumption is decreasing, so it’s possible that the production will be fewer than the consumption.Pork production is an important aspect of animal husbandry. According to the problems of pork production now, we should take effective measures to ensure the pork production, pork’s quality and safety, at the same time, reduce pollution. And considering the characteristic of people’s life now, on the aspect of pork consumption, we should make reasonable policies in terms of different consumer group, and increase the diversity of processed meat so as to meet the needs of people.