Dissertation > SCIENCE AND > Journal of Systems Science > Systems,modern systems theory > System Dynamics

Research on Urban Residence Grade-distribution and Filtration System

Author SunYuTing
Tutor WuYongXiang
School Harbin Institute of Technology
Course Management Science and Engineering
Keywords Urban Residence Grade Distribution Residence Filtration SystemDynamics Simulation
CLC N941.3
Type Master's thesis
Year 2012
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At the end of the20th century, the real estate market in China is opened and itsmarketizaiton is gradually rising. After several years of development, it is now risingfast along with ups and downs. Regulations are becoming more sufficient and thedegree of marketization is gradually improving. It contributes to the fact that peoplehave more options while buying houses since their living standards are now higher.Those housing demands are hierarchial and influenced by economic level and socialstratification. Affected by the market operation, housing supply is also becomingvarious with obvious hierarchy so as to meet different levels of housing needs.However, as the housing market in China is not mature, and the policies,regulations and controls by government are not perfect, real estate companies tend toconduct high value-added residential projects. All these facts lead to lack of housingsupply for residents with medium and low housing consumption ability, and thestructure imbalance between supply and demand is getting worse. In addition, as thegovernment housing guarantee project in China started a little late and the urbanrenewal is accelerating, a lot of low income residents’ housing problems cannot besolved effectively. It leaves more livelihood issues to be concerned.Based on the background, this article puts forward the concept "Urban ResidenceGrad-distribution and Filtration System"(URGFS) in order to reflect all levels ofhousing supply and demand and also the residence filtration. Through system dynamicsmodeling and simulation, the trends of hierarchical supply and demand in housingmarket are forecasted and the housing policy suggestions are provided.First, this article explored and identified the contents and characteristics of the3subsystems of URGFS, and its unique system mechanism are analyzed. Then, it putsforward some basic assumptions and completes analysis of cause loops and stock-flowcharts of each subsystem. After setting up the SD equations of all variables, the systemdynamic model of URGFS is finished. After that, the reliability and validity of themodel are verified through boundary test, historical data test and so on.After that, the SD model of URGFS is used to conduct simulation of housingdemand and supply on every level. And through changing the variables and structure ofthe model, the simulations about urban development and residence market policies suchas imposing house property tax, accelerating the construction of housing guarantee areconducted. Ultimately, some effective and targeted suggestions are concluded for thegovernment to conduct a scientific control for the development of residece market.

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