Research on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Jinan Based on PSR Model
|School||Shandong Agricultural University|
|Course||Hydrology and Water Resources|
|Keywords||pressure-state-response model Correlation analysis Principal componentanalysis Entropy method Water resources carrying capacity|
There are three prominent water problems of Jinan which are Water shortages, waterecological fragile, water disaster threat, especially the natural endowment of water resourcesshortage is difficult to change. With the economic and social development of Jinan,improvement of living standards, as well as the increasing requirement of people on thenatural environment, makes the demand for water grow. Under the premise that the growth ofwater supply amount is lower than the growth of water resources demand, water resources hasbecome the restricts the social and economic development of Jinan. To serve the developmentof society and economy, the population, society and ecological environment harmoniousbetter, the first thing to do is that under the status quo conditions, how many populationquantities, how much the scale of social economy water resources can supply and whetherecological environment can develop healthy, how much the water resources carryingcapability is. Those are definitely major topics. What is more, it is very important practicalsignificance for the sustainable development of Jinan.This paper based on the actual situation of Jinan city, through the collection of a largenumber of statistical data and comprehensive consideration of social economy, water resourceand ecological environment, according to the modeling concept of PSR model, constructedthe evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Jinan city.Secondly, aimed at the problem that the indicator system based on the PSR model is toocomplex, this paper adopted regression correlation analysis. Under the requirement of0.05confidence level, delete indicators in the evaluation index system which have greaterrelevance to each other; then, adopted Principal Component Analysis to screen indicator onfactor loading; at last, reduce the number of evaluation index from38to23. Thus, establishedthe evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Jinan based on the PSRmodel.Then, under the established evaluation system, adopted SPSS19.0software and PrincipalComponent Analysis to analysis and calculate the evaluation indexes, obtained four principalcomponents which affected water resources carrying capacity of Jinan city. This principalcomponents analysis the water resources carrying capacity of Jinan city four different angles,including social economy, water resource, groundwater and ecological environment, surfacewater and ecological environment. Eventually, obtained water resources carrying capacity score over the years at different angles. Then, carried weight determination of the score offour principal components by entropy weight method, got the composite score of the carryingcapacity of water resources of Jinan city over this years.Finally, according to the results of the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Jinancity, aimed at the problems in the process of development and utilization of water resources,put forward measures and methods from resources, structural and technical to improve waterresources carrying capacity of Jinan.