Research on Vulnerability Assessment Method of Natural Disasters Based on Multi-attribute Decision-making
|Course||Management Science and Engineering|
|Keywords||Natural Disaster Vulnerability Assessment Index System Multi-attribute Decision-making|
Natural disasters occurred in human production and living environmentinvolving of social systems and natural ecosystems frequently, threatening the safetyof human life and producing serious economic damage to property and resourcedamages, as a result affecting social stability. Earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughtsand other natural disasters, brought ongoing dangerous damages to human society, soit’s one of the international community’s common goals to minimize the loss causedby natural disasters, and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation has also become one ofthe focuses of the national, regional, city, and community management. Vulnerabilityassessment of natural disasters as the theoretical basis of the disaster management andresearch tools, has attracted more and more attention of governments and scholars,playing an unprecedented role in disaster risk management.In the vulnerability assessment of natural disasters research, constant innovationwas made by disaster research scholars at home and abroad due to the differences ofthe object of study and research purposes. On the basis of existing vulnerabilityassessment analysis methods and research of natural disaster, a meticulous andquantitative assessment index system and model algorithm were put forward in thisresearch. A multi-attribute comprehensive assessment method was used to select thetypical indicators of natural disasters vulnerability to complete the scientificassessment system in this thesis, and Tianjin Binhai New Area, was taken for exampleto verify the feasibility of the index system and assessment model in theoreticalscience and technical. Through this research, the measurement, comparison,monitoring and early warning targets of vulnerability assessment of natural disasterscould be reached, providing scientific rationality and objectivity of assessment criteriafor urban vulnerability assessment of natural disasters, which could have importantscientific significance on building urban risk emergency management system and withrisk prevention as the core and protecting the security and sustainable development ofurban life and property.Firstly, this thesis reviewed the research results of the vulnerability assessment ofnatural disasters, exploring further theories and methods improving to achieve practical application. Secondly, natural disasters vulnerability’s multi-attributedecision-making features and multi-attribute assessment system were analyzed,completing the study of vulnerability assessment index system theory and relatedmulti-attribute decision making theory. Thirdly, based on correlation-principalcomponent analysis, vulnerability indexes were filtered to meet the requirement oflow redundancy and having significant impact on assessment results, and a precisequantization vulnerability index system was built. Fourthly, EOWA operator ofmulti-attribute language assessment method was used for polymeric the vulnerabilityindexes and vulnerability assessment model of natural disasters was build. What’smore, empirical research on vulnerability assessments of Tianjin Binhai New Areawas also completed. Finally, conclusions were made and specific directions for furtherresearch were clearly pointed out.