Guizhou province energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth research
|School||Guizhou University of Finance and Economics|
|Course||Population, Resources and Environmental Economics|
|Keywords||Guizhou province energy carbon emission economic growth|
While people enjoyed the fruitful results brought by the economy continued rapid development in the recent200years since the industrial revolution, it also caused serious damage to the natural resources and ecological environment. China, which causes great carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, is one of the largest energy consumption country in the world. It is high time to seek the development mode which cause low carbon gas emission and also can protection environment to realize the sustainable development of the coordination of economy, society and ecological environment. Guizhou province is an inland province in the southwest of China, whose economic development is relatively low, and because of the wide distribution of "three high" enterprises which cause high energy consumption and high emission, the industrial structure is also need to be optimized. This paper will analyze inner link and the influencing factors among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth of Guizhou province in recent years, and provide scientific basis for decision-making for Guizhou province to realize the harmonious development of economy, society and ecological environment.This paper firstly makes statistical analysis in energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth of Guizhou province in the past ten years based on the theory of sustainable development and the domestic and foreign related research literature, then simulate specific inner link between them with the linear regression equation, and make predictions for the the development trend in the future. The results find that economic growth and energy consumption are positively correlated, and economic growth and carbon emissions were negatively correlated in Guizhou province, there are two-way causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions. They are also fit the theory of EKC curve and EKC curve with inverted "U" shape, the turning points will respectively reach in in2034and2037. But in the study period, the actual economic growth rate of Guizhou Province which excludes the price factor is generally slower than the growth rate of energy consumption and carbon emissions, economic growth and energy consumption and carbon emissions are linked in most of time, so we can say the economic development has brought enormous pressure on resources and the environment. The paper analyses the main influencing factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions of Guizhou province with grey correlation analysis method and the LMD index decomposition method in the end, evaluate the the level of sustainable development since2000with factor analysis method, it find that energy consumption industry is the biggest factor affecting the energy consumption, and the biggest factor affecting the carbon emission is the efficiency of using energy, which illustrates the maximum thrust of energy consumption is the development of high energy consumption industries, and the best way to decrease carbon emission intensity gradually is to increase the efficiency of energy use. Moreover, the level of sustainable development in Guizhou province is always in a rising trend, which illustrates that the overall development of economic and social is good and stable.This paper gives following suggestions based on the results of theoretical and empirical research:firstly, it is necessary to improve the level of industry and the industrial structure. Secondly, develop new energy, and optimize energy structure. Thirdly, ensure the exsiting city greening area, and plant more trees in the rest areas. Fourthly, advocate low carbon economy and life style, enhance public awareness of environmental protection through extensive public advocation.In addition, because Guizhou Province is in the left half of energy EKC curve and CKC curve in the near future, the pressure of energy and environment must be greater. So Guizhou province should accelerate the transformation of industrial structure and the improvement of production technology, it also should implement energy-saving emission reduction policies to make that two turning points come earlier.