Research on the Optimization of China’s Energy Structure Based on Low-carbon Economy
|School||Harbin Engineering University|
|Course||Management Science and Engineering|
|Keywords||Low-carbon economy Energy consumption structure Energy supplystructure Optimization|
With the process of industrialization speeding up, the contradiction between economicdevelopment and the resource as well as the environment has become increasingly prominent.Deterioration of the environment brought about a series of negative effects, such as globalwarming, desertification, etc. The greenhouse effect, especially, has been the serious threat tohuman survival. To response climate change and improve the situation of environmentdeterioration, the low-carbon economy mode is put forward. Low-carbon economycharacterized by low consumption, low emissions, low pollution, is the sustainable economicdevelopment model, the essence of which is changing energy use, improving energyefficiency and optimizing the energy structure, in use of technological progress andinstitutional innovation. So, this paper takes the optimization idea of reducing carbon intensitycontinuously in the process of energy adjustment, as the main line, and studies the influencemechanism of energy structure on low-carbon economy from the viewpoint of qualitative andquantitative, based on goal programming theory. The main content of this study includes sixparts as following:The first part mainly studies the influence factor and influence mechanism of low-carboneconomy. First of all, it defines energy and low-carbon economy. Secondly, the main factorsinfluencing the carbon emissions intensity are refined by reviewing the literature. Then, itcatches the influence mechanism specifically in use of the path analysis.The second part is the analysis and evaluation of China’s current situation of energystructure. First of all, considering the low carbon, it analyzes the current situation of energyconsumption structure and energy supply structure. Secondly, it establishes the optimizationdegree evaluation system of energy structure under low-carbon economy paradigm, includingsocial and economic benefits, energy planning benefits as well as environment benefits, by thetheory of Rough Set, combined with AHP. Then, it sets the grading standards, and carries oncomprehensive measurement and evaluation of multi-indexes for rationality of energystructure by unascertained measure evaluation model for1998-2010.The third part is the overall design of energy structure optimization based on low-carboneconomy. Based on the review and assessment of China’s energy strategy and policy, it putsforward the principle, direction, target, key and tasks of energy structure optimization basedon low-carbon economy.The fourth part studies optimization model construction of energy consumption structureto low-carbon and empirical analysis. First of all, it makes scenario prediction of energy consumption based on low carbon by the improved IPAT model. Secondly, taking reducingcarbon intensity as the single goal, considering targets of economic growth and carbonemissions reduction, itr uses goal programming method to build the optimization model ofenergy consumption structure, then makes the optimization simulation of energy consumptionstructure in2009-2020.The fifth part studied the optimization of energy supply structure based on low-carboneconomy. First of all, it makes scenario prediction of low carbon energy development scale,based on the analysis of China’s low carbon energy development potential. Secondly, it buildsthe forecasting model of energy supply in comprehensive use of grey forecasting, trendforecasting method and variable weight combination forecasting method, and predicts China’senergy supply structure. Then, the energy supply structure is adjusted to meet the constraint ofsaving energy and carbon emissions as well as energy demand.The last part is the optimization approaches and strategies of energy structure based onlow-carbon economy. Based on quantitative results and aualitative results above, theoptimization strategies of energy structure based on low-carbon economy are put forward.