Impact Factors Decomposition of Hunan Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the CGE Simulation Study on Carbon Tax
|Keywords||Hunan Province carbon dioxide factors decomposition carbon tax CGE model|
It has become a global focus of high concern that global climate changed byrising of carbon dioxide concentration in atmosphere. Hunan as the bridgehead ofChina’s"resource-saving and environment-friendly society"reform pilot area,one offour environmental tax pilot provinces,it has a very important practical significance todevelop a low-carbon economy,and lead to explore the carbon tax policy.Based on the above background,firstly this paper calculates carbon dioxide directemissions in Hunan’s domestic production and modifies the result with twomethods.One of them is to estimate the runaway carbon-dioxide generated in energyconversion by referring to the energy balance table.The other is to study the IPCCinstructions about carbon-dioxide emission resources in producing process and thecorresponding computing methods,and measure carbon-dioxide emissions inindustrial production of four products,such as cement, glass and synthesis ammonia etal. Then,this paper decomposites the change of carbon-dioxide emissions from2001to2010through two stage LMDI model. It mainly takes important factors whichrespectively are energy structure, industry energy intensity, energy coefficient,industrial structure and industrial scale into cons ideration;the paper alsodecomposites Hunan CO2emissions growth factors from2002to2007through SDAmethod based on the input-output table. It mainly takes the effect of energyconsumption intensity, intermediate input structure effect, structural effec t of finaldemand and total final demand effect into consideration.Furthermore, based on theHNUGE model, by extending the energy module and environment module. The paperdesigns short-term simulation and long-term simulation which considers the energysubstitution.Simulate the effects of carbon tax on macroeconomic,industrialstructure,energy saving and environmental protection in Hunan Province.Through the study, the following conclusions can be drawn.The carbon dioxideemission in energy conversion and industrial production accounts for29.7%of t hetotal; the improvement of energy efficiency is the major factor to inhibit the increaseof carbon dioxide emissions in Hunan,and the expansion of the industry scale is themain factor to promote the increase of carbon dioxide emissions in Hunan; the finalgross demand expansion plays a maximum role of car bon dioxide emissionsincrease.In contrast,energy intensity effect and export expansion effect suppress carbon dioxide emissions increase.In the short-term simulation,the level ofemployment fell0.54%,GDP fell0.07%.In the long-term simulation,the capitaldropped0.86%,GDP fell0.71%.Carbon dioxide emissions fell0.14%in the short-termand fell1.26%in the long-term.The per unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions alsodecreased by0.07%in the short-term and0.55%in the long-term and short-term.Industry structure effect is an important explanatory factors for short-term carbondioxide emission reduction, but industry scale effect is a significantly major source o fcarbon dioxide emission reduction in the long-term.Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, several policy recommendations topromote low-carbon economy in Hunan Province were put forward.