Dissertation >

Empirical Research about the Electricity Demand of the Industries

Author ZhiJiao
Tutor ShiDaiMin
School Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course Applied Statistics
Keywords electricity demand granger causality test seasonal cycle model panel data model
Type Master's thesis
Year 2013
Downloads 55
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Many studies have shown that electric power development is directly related to the development of the national economy. With the development of the production, economic growth, China’s electricity load has increased substantially. In a certain period, power supply and demand contradictions still exist. The suddenly increasing of power use demand and the increasing outthrust of power supply and demand confliction make research of the electricity characteristics more important. By predicting the industrial electricity consumption and analyzing characteristics of different industries of electricity, we tried to find electricity characteristics of different industries for the rational allocation of power.In this paper, based on granger causality analysis, seasonal cycle model and panel data model, we start research about the electricity demand of the industries. In the first place, we found the relationship between the social power consumption and GDP using Engle and Granger co-integration test. By the granger causality test, we proved that the social power consumption is the granger cause of the economic growth. In the second place, we use the seasonal cycle model to forecast the industrial consumption among2013and2015, the forecasting result indicates that the model is effective. In the third place, in view of the complex industry distribution, we analyzed the characteristic of industrial electrical demand, and found that the mining industry, manufacturing industry of electricity growth is affected by the economic development and prosperity index of industrial enterprises, the supply of electric power, gas and water industry is affected by the electricity price and economic development. In the end, according to industry characteristics, we need to adjust measures to local conditions, alleviate the pressure of periodic peaks, and make rational allocation of energy resources.Most of the scholars focused on industry, but didn’t go deep into the various industries to research the electricity demand. According to the national economy industry classification, the article innovation is that we divided the industry into three categories, and analyzed different industry electricity characteristics. We tried to find the characteristics of different industries, and classify them, gain effective information.

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