Judging Lewis Turning Point in China
|School||Southwestern University of Finance and Economics|
|Keywords||Lewis turning point agricultural sector Industrial sector Surplus labor force|
Development of agriculture and rural economy must be taken into account in its process of economic development of each country. especially early in the socio-economic development, Agricultural sector provided the material basis for continuity and a lot of social labor for the development of the modern industrial sector. But this mode applies only to initial stage of economic development. When the modern industrial sector develops to a certain stage, and the agricultural sector is still lagging behind, former economic development situation will be in trouble or even stagnation. Lewis model is based on the basic theories of balanced and harmonious development of countryside and city, Understanding Lewis model is of great significance in balancing sustainable development of urban and rural dual economy in China.From the year of2004, the nationwide labor shortage phenomena occurred caused academic debate about Lewis turning point. Represented by CAI Fang, economists think about Lewis turning point in China has arrived as early as2005. Represented by Wei Liu and Yuan Zhigang, a number of scholars have insisted that our country has not yet appeared Lewis turning point. But who is right? TO answer the question, this article will primarily study on whether Lewis turning point has emerged in China, if it has yet to emerge, we will estimate when Lewis turning point would emerge.During the drafting process, this paper is divided into six chapters. First chapter is the introduction section, separately from the background of topics, research methods and the content, significance, major innovations and disadvantages. Not only fully elaborated research Lewis turning point has a distinct theme of the times and practical significance, also describes the approach which used to determine whether Lewis turning point comes and the method to predict the arrival time of Lewis turning point; Part Ⅱ chapters are related concepts and theories, In concepts section mainly defines the concepts of migrant workers, rural surplus labor, and Lewis turning point. In the theory section, provide a detailed introduction about the development process and the content of Lewis theory model; Third chapter is Research status of Lewis turning point, we introduced when the Lewis turning point comes, what it means on China’s economy,and the main focus of this controversial topic; Chapter IV is "Is the Lewis turning point coming?", this part of the main content is judged on whether Lewis turning point occurred in China; Chapter v is "Is China’s economy far away from the Lewis turning point?", the primary content is to predict the arrival time of Lewis turning point. Chapter VI is the policy recommendations.This article get conclusions that the Lewis turning point has not appeared in China, and predicted the Lewis turning point will come in or around2020, and we must make appropriate policy adjustments and prepared with economy in transition.