Driving Factors of Global Inflation and Effects of the Impact on China
|School||Tianjin University of Finance and Economics|
|Keywords||Inflation Global Inflation State Space Model|
After the global financial crisis, in order to stimulate the recovery of the national economy, the countries of the world have to implement a loose monetary policy, particularly led by the United States, Japan and other developed economies, which carried out several rounds of quantitative easing to inject a lot of liquidity to the market; furthermore, dollar index get down, commodity prices hit record highs, the existence of the global output gap, coupled with the rise of the global wage levels resulting in further increases in production costs, the combination of these factors boosts the global inflation rate rising.After analysis of the volatility characteristics of the global inflation from1971to2012, global inflation is mainly due to the U.S. factor, the progress of science and technology, oil and commodity prices, changes in monetary policy, as well as anti-inflation system innovation and find that the inflation volatility characteristics of developed economies and emerging economies both have consistency and differences.New Keynesian Phillips curve stresses on the nominal wage stickiness, hysteresis price adjustments and non-perfect competition theory, applying microeconomic theory to macroeconomic research, and better explains the socio-economic phenomenon. Based on New Keynesian Phillips curve, five driven factors--global wage levels, global economic growth, the global money supply, the dollar exchange rate and international resource commodity prices are fit into the theory model, and then this paper uses the state space model for data processing, and gets the result that money supply is a significant factor in continuing to push inflation.At the same time global inflation knock-on effects on China’s economy, China’s economic growth rate and the RMB exchange rate are included in the VAR model, and get result that global inflation have persistent negative effects on economic growth in China, and have continued upward pressure on the RMB exchange rate.On the basis of the above analvsis. recommendations on measures are made to be taken in the face of global inflation in China by drawing on the developed economies, and combined with the reality of our country.