An Investigation of Influencing Factors of Joint-Stock Commercial Banks’ Saving Deposits in China
|Keywords||Joint-Stock Commercial Bank Saving OLS Unit Root Test Granger Causality Impulse Response|
In our country, commercial bank can be divided into four groups:state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks and rural financial institutions. On one hand, compared with state-owned commercial banks, the history of joint-stock commercial bank’s is shorter, finance power is weaker, branches are less, so the economy scale is difficult to obtain. On the other hand, without the historical burden, the joint-stock commercial banks can create competition and have higher management efficiency. Thus, opportunities and challenges are followed in the develop process of joint-stock commercial banks. From the point of balance sheet, as we all know, debit business is the source of funds and the base of asset business, middle business. Debit business of commercial bank is made up of deposits and loans. Deposits are the main source of funds and also the traditional business of commercial bank. Therefore, it is important to research the influencing factors effect on saving of commercial bank in China.First of all, we have the literature review. Lots of researchers agree that GDP, income, interest and inflation are the important factors affect saving. However, few literatures has researched the effects of micro banking factors on saving, fewer literatures are about the influence of micro factors on saving in China. Nowadays, interest rates are almost the same, the construction of marketing channel, the differences of financing product and the level of service are the magic weapon to attract saving and even maintain customer relationship. So it is no doubt that micro factors have vital effects on saving. Therefore, it is necessary to research factors influencing saving, especially micro factors.Secondly, we have reviewed theories about saving, including theories about interest, income and economic growing. According this, we have the variables and model selected. However, we noticed that the theories are all about macro factors, almost no theories about micro factors.Based on the literature and theory review, our sample is the data of XY bank Jinan branch from January2012to June2013. On one hand, we used the scatter diagram and quantile analysis to describe our data, which have showed the relationship between micro factors and saving. On the other hand, we utilize the correlation, OLS and stepwise regression to analysis the model. Correlation analysis shows us that there is a strong relationship between marketing channel, service, fee, interest and saving, but a weak relationship between GDP, income, inflation and saving. However, OLS regression shows us that only fee has significant effect on saving on5%level. Stepwise regression shows us that marketing channel, service, fee and interest itself has significant effect on saving. However, only fee is notable when all original significant factors are in the model. Considering our data is time series, we have used VAR to analysis our model. The unit root test shows us that the original time series is not balance. The logarithm form of marketing channel, service, fee, income, interest rate, inflation are first order list at5%level, the logarithm form of GDP is first order list at10%level. Granger causality tests indicate that marketing channel, service level fee and saving are the granger causality of each other. GDP is not the granger causality of saving, but saving is the granger causality of GDP. Income, interest rate, inflation are not the granger causality of saving, vise-visa. Further, the impulse response indicates the short term relationship between micro, macro factors and saving.Finally, we conclude the effects of marketing channel, service level, fee, GDP, income, interest and inflation on saving and put forward corresponding suggestions.