The Index System for Farmers’ Credit Evaluation under the Circumstance of Credit Deficiency
|Keywords||credit deficiency farmers’ credit evaluation index system AHP ANN|
In recent years, with the development of the rural finance, the farmers’credit loans has increased a lot. How to evaluate the farmer’credit status, in order to determine their credit capacity, is an urgent problem. Nowdays, our country does not have an unified credit evaluation system. What’s more, the construction of the farmers’credit evaluation index system is still in the infancy stage. Therefore, according to these problems in China, this paper carried out the analysis.Firstly, this paper analyze the development of the foreign and domestic personal credit evaluation system, which contain the content and characteristics of the FICO evaluation system and the achievements of China’s personal credit evaluation system. Then the paper refers to a special group of farmers, and development of the farmer’credit evaluation system.. This part contains three aspects, one is the rural credit loan development trend,which points out that the unreasonable credit rating system is one of the reasons for the decline in the proportion of the rural credit amount to the country’s total amount of credit, causing the difficulty for farmers to get loans; another aspect is the development of the farmers credit evaluation system, which contains the local credit information file management system and local farmers’ credit evaluation system. The final aspect is the problems and deficiencies of our farmers credit evaluation system, which leads to another important content of the paper--"the construction of the farmer’ credit evaluation system based on AHP-ANN"In this part, paper investigates713farmers’ credit records in xx credit union in ChangSha country, designing the farmers’ credit evaluating index system, which has a structure of target level-criteria level-elements level, using AHP model, and then, we calculate the weight of each indicator. According to the weights we gain, we choose some indicators as the input layer of ANN model, and using AHP-ANN combined model, farmers’ credit level and credit scores are obtained. In order to prove the rationality of the combined model, the paper takes all indicators as the input layer of the neural network model, omiting this step of AHP, and get the final result which is worse than before. Through the comparation, the conclusion that combined model is superior to the single model is proved.Finally, relevant policy suggestions, such as the credit information database construction, the promotion of the credit evaluation model, and the construction of the unified farmers’credit evaluation system, are proposed according to the shortage of this paper and the farmers’credit evaluation system.