The Study on Risk of China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Process of Capital Account Liberation
|Keywords||foreign exchange reserves scale risk Structural risk Capital Account Liberation|
This paper is established on the basis of the study on the risk of foreign exchange reserves at home and abroad. Combined with the existing facts that China is accelerating RMB capital account opening, the security issues faced by the huge foreign exchange reserves held by our country are divided into two categories in this paper, one is the size of the risk of foreign exchange reserves, and the other is the structural risk of foreign exchange reserves, structural risks include the risks of the stock of asset allocation structure and the risks caused by the new added structure of foreign exchange reserves.Based on such ideas, this paper firstly studies the modest scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves under conditions of capital account liberalization and the negative impacts on China’s macroeconomics caused by huge foreign exchange reserves, and we find that in the foreseeable future China’s foreign exchange reserves may be inadequate. Secondly, this paper analysis the risks faced by the current structure of China’s foreign exchange reserves, and then come to the conclusions that China should gradually adjust the foreign exchange reserve assets allocation structure dominated by the dollar without prejudice to the premise of national financial security. Finally, from the perspective of the structure of new sources of foreign exchange reserves, this paper studies the overall risk faced by the capital and financial account balance becoming the current main sources of new foreign exchange reserves in China’s foreign exchange reserves with particular emphasis on some "Chinese-style" special risks.Based on the above studies, we put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the risk of foreign exchange reserves, and should also pay attention to the problems caused by the RMB capital account opening.