Analysis on Development Cost and Production Cost of Missile Engine and Research on its Estimation Methods
|School||Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics|
|Keywords||Missile Engine Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Development Costs Production Costs Grey Model GM(0,N) Engineering Estimation Method Research|
Missile engine technology has an important role in the development of weaponry. With thecontinuous improvement of engine performance, engine structure has become more and morecomplex. The costs of engine design, production and maintenance were rising. Therefore, reducing thelife cycle cost of missile engine has become a significant condition to engine design. Using cost as anindependent variable(CAIV) method has become an important technology and administrative measurefor foreign country, especially for America. China’s defense budget has always been limited, and thereis a shortage of fund for the missile engine design and development. So, it is urgent that we reducedthe life cycle cost or improved the economic affordability in order to develop our missile engine.Foreign research on the life cycle cost of missile engine and other weaponry and the estimationmethod was far more earlier than China’s. However, China has made a remarkable progress in recentyears. At present, there are several methods to estimate the life cycle cost of military aviation engine,for example, parametric estimation method, engineering estimation method, analogy estimationmethod and expert judgment estimation method. There are some other intelligent estimation methods,such as neural networks, the gray modeling estimation method and so on. This article analyzes thedefinitions, counting processes, pros and cons and the scope of these methods.On the base of analyzing development cost and production cost of missile engine, this articleuses the gray system parameters modeling method to estimate the development cost. Using theGM(0,N) model to describe the process of establishing estimation model. Because of the lack ofdomestic missile engine data, it is the foreign engines cost and performance parameters data that havebeen used. The results of accuracy test are satisfactory. Engineering estimation method has also beenused to estimate the production cost of missile engine. Firstly decompose the engine structure andcode every parts to build a production cost categories. Then describe the detail steps of the estimationprocesses by using both diagram form and text. And take the axial-flow compressor as an example tospecify engineering estimation methods.Finally, this article showed the management principles of missile engine life cycle cost. And givemeasures about reducing missile engine development and production costs both technologically andmanagerially.