A Comparison of the Metabolic Syndrome Score and the Framingham Risk Score for Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease
|Keywords||Metabolic syndrome Cardiovascular disease Framingham risk score Risk assessment|
Objective To compare Metabolic Syndrome score(MS score) with the Framingham risk score(FRS) of 10-year as predictors of cardiovascular disease(CVD).Methods MS score for prediction of CVD was developed based on 10-year FRS. The definition of the MS used in this study was based on the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment PanelⅢreport (NCEP-ATPⅢ). Cox proportional hazard model and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability , based on the data from the cohort study on the prevention of multiple metabolic disorders and MS in Jiangsu province.Results Among 3598 (1451 men, 2147 women) subjects in the cohort, 82 developed CVD during the follow-up. The median time of follow-up was 6.3 years. Area under the curve (AUC) increased after changing MS components into continous variables(AUC of MS score/MS components aggregation: 0.70/0.65,P<0.05 and sensitivity of MS score/MS components aggregation: 80.5%/74.4% for a given specificity). Mutually ajusted risk factors of MS score and the FRS, only when excluding the age, the AUC of the FRS decreased from 0.78 to 0.65 significantly (P<0.05)while including the age, the AUC of MS score increased to 0.78 (sensitivity of MS score including the age/the FRS: 90.2% vs 87.8 %); In COX proportional hazards mutiple risk factors analysis, MS score including the age greater associated with CVD than the FRS under the same exposed subjects.Conclusion The new developed MS score including the age was a valid tool for predicting CVD and its predictive ability was as good as the FRS.