Study on the Situation of Cigarettes Consumption and Its Main Affecting Index in Zhangzhou
|School||Hunan Agricultural University|
|Keywords||Cigarette consumption Influencing factors Economic Indicators Panel Data Partial Least Squares Zhangzhou|
In order to understand the the Zhangzhou current cigarette consumption situation reveals Zhangzhou cigarette consumption and its mainly affect the relationship between the factors, the survey collected Cigarette sales in 2002-2006 Zhangzhou county district and main economic indicators data, and the use of panel data analysis and partial least squares regression analysis methods of its analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: 1, Zhangzhou City, the total cigarette consumption in 2006 the 194,700 cartons 2002-2006 average growth rate of 8.31%, the county district consumer total differences Hua'an minimum consumption, the highest consumption of Longhai and Zhangpu County counties cigarette consumption volume is growing year by year. Zhangzhou City, a class of cigarette and second-class cigarette consumption is growing year by year, the three types of cigarette consumption is more stable and the largest proportion of the four categories of cigarettes with five types of cigarette diminishing, especially the five categories of cigarettes in 2005 and 2006 accounted for only 0.61% and 0.06%. The Zhangzhou around 2006, cigarette consumption structure similar to that of Zhangzhou, three types of cigarette consumption in the largest proportion, five types of cigarette consumption minimum Longhai and Zhangpu County consumption, Hua'an minimum. 2, in recent years, Zhangzhou three, four types of cigarette consumption in the highest, is the the preferred cigarette type of consumer, belongs to the basic needs and consumption; followed by one or two types of cigarettes, the more vigorous development momentum, belongs to the enjoyment and development structure ; at least five types of tobacco consumption. With the increase of per capita disposable income, Zhangzhou regional differences in the level of cigarette consumption. Rapid development of Longhai, Xiao Yun, Dongshan, two types of cigarettes, three, four types of cigarettes declined; Zhangpu, Zhaoan, Nanjing, Huaan, Changtai, peaceful, urban, four types of cigarette consumption relatively stable, and one or two types of cigarettes a slight growth. 3, Zhangzhou City, two, three cigarette consumption tendency largest, followed by a class of cigarette consumption tendency, four, five types of cigarettes lowest propensity to consume four types of cigarette consumption tendency for negative. From the full view of Zhangzhou City, the ratio of the two types of cigarettes by 6.32% in 2002 and 7.75% respectively, the steady growth of 15.96% and 21.17% in 2006; little change in the proportion of the three types of cigarettes, an average of 55.24%; The five categories of cigarettes dropped from 24.26% and 4.98% to 9.73% and 0.06%, respectively. With Zhangzhou City resident income levels increase, two, three types of cigarette consumption demand increased gradually become the main type of cigarette consumption, while a class of cigarettes although the price is high, but the propensity to consume is still large, with cigarette in our communication related to the role of senior cigarettes as gifts with the gradual increase in economic activity and commercial activities, their consumption will also increase. With the improvement of people's living standards, health consciousness is gradually enhanced, low-grade cigarettes harmful ingredients, as a low-grade cigarettes, five types of smoke will inevitably reduce the purchasing power, as well as to withdraw from the market. 4 base given index of consumer price growth of cigarette consumption in Zhangzhou greatest impact, will increase with the the Zhangzhou GDP growth and the rapid industrial development, and the improvement of people's living standards, Zhangzhou cigarette consumption demand. The impact of of Zhangzhou cigarette consumption is also an important factor in the retail price of cigarettes, adjust by raising the level of cigarette taxes on cigarette prices. By partial least squares regression analysis, to get of Zhangzhou cigarette consumer demand standardized partial least squares regression model: ACC = 7.717-0.0662 × CAP 0.2521 × POP 0.078 × GDP 0.0944 × PRI 0.0782 × TEI 0.0139 × AHC 0.1387 × FCE 0.2367 × CPI 0.0492 × PCI 0.0158 × AWW original observations on the predictive value of the regression coefficient of 0.9966, fitting better.