The Empirical Study on the Volatility of Real Estate Price in China
|Keywords||Real estate prices Macroeconomic side Financial market|
China since the abolition of welfare housing system in 1998 , the real estate consumer demand for a huge release , the real estate investment has expanded rapidly , real estate sales area increased year by year , the real estate market has been a great development . The healthy development of the real estate industry as the leading industry of the national economy , regardless of people's lives , or on state revenues , as well as the development of the national economy are very important . Therefore, the empirical study of the factors affecting the price of real estate , not only to provide a scientific basis for the government to develop a reasonable industrial policy , and advice , but also give useful guidance to buyers , so as to promote the health of China's real estate industry , sustainable development . A lot of research on China 's real estate market and real estate prices , not only a qualitative analysis of the theoretical , quantitative empirical analysis , but the existing inadequacies of these studies is not clear that the influencing factors of real estate prices , as well as the influence of these factors how much. This paper studies the relationship between the the macroeconomic side with real estate prices : GNP is an important factor affecting real estate prices ; proportion of output value of non-agricultural industries , the proportion of non-farm employment , population density , as well as investment goods price index on affect real estate prices , but the intensity is very small ; total investment of residents' disposable income , the investment in fixed assets , as well as the consumer price index of real estate prices is not significant . This paper further explore the impact of the reform of the financial markets on the real estate prices , the results show that the real estate development loan amount , interest rate levels and per capita income has a significant impact on real estate prices , while foreign investment, the impact of the consumer price index was not significant . From the above results , the macroeconomic side has been unable to explain fluctuations in real estate prices in China , on the contrary , the impact of financial markets on the real estate prices are gradually increased as the financial reform . To promote the healthy development of China's real estate industry , and addition to solve the structural problems in China's economic growth , the construction of the financial system must also strengthen the regulatory role of government prevent bank risk and external funding , and constantly improve our real estate financial system .