The Research of Asset Price Fluctuation’s Influences on Consumer Price Index
|School||Jiangxi University of Finance|
|Keywords||Asset prices Real estate prices Stock price Consumer Price Index|
In recent years, the role of financial asset prices in monetary policy more and more attention has been paid, with the most recent one or two decades, this series of financial crises in developed and developing countries. Many scholars believe that the financial asset price volatility is a key factor leading to the outbreak of the financial crisis. A long time, central banks have been as important or primary objective to control inflation. After national efforts, inflation hyperinflation has been effective governance, This is in stark contrast to the world's financial markets, especially stocks, real estate and other asset markets, a spate of expansion and contraction huge fluctuations. From our point of view, the stock market from the stock price rose fell from the date of birth have been common, real estate prices there have been dramatic fluctuations. From a historical point of view, both in developed and developing countries have experienced large swings in asset prices. Especially since the 1970s, the rise of financial liberalization and economic globalization, financial markets increasingly grow and develop, the magnitude of the fluctuations in the price of financial assets has always been rare. According to statistics, the Western developed countries, the stock market prices since 2000 there has been a decline of more than 30%, while at the same time, real estate prices in other developed countries except Japan, but there have been varying degrees of growth, the Spanish increase in house prices in about 30% of UK house prices since 2000, an increase of nearly 40%. The paper is divided into four parts, the model of impact on the CPI from the housing and stock prices, a brief review of the past research, and then elaborated three of the theoretical basis of the relationship, then the relationship between empirical test, and finally draw conclusions and make policy recommendations. Specific sections are as follows: The first part is the introduction. Mainly on the background and significance of the research questions in this section, a brief review of the results of research at home and abroad, and pointed out its shortcomings, after further study of this paper provides important material. In addition, the object of this study, a brief description of the research framework. The second part is the part of the theoretical basis of the article. This section describes the defects of China's consumer price index. Cause volatility in the stock and real estate prices. Analyze the mechanism of real estate prices and stock prices affect inflation, and describes the relationship between asset prices and inflation. Followed by an analysis of asset prices into the theoretical basis and necessity of the Consumer Price Index, as well as on asset prices at home and abroad approach. The third part is the empirical part of the article, following the second part of the analysis of foreign experience fluctuations in asset prices affect inflation mechanism, analysis of asset price fluctuations of inflation mechanism and abroad difference. This chapter selected the 1998-2007 annual data for the empirical analysis. Co-integration test, Granger causality test and error correction model were empirical analysis of the relationship of the real estate prices and inflation, stock prices and inflation. For China's specific national conditions and the treatment of real estate prices in China. Included in the price of China's monetary policy monitoring situation of our country. The fourth part of the preparation of the current situation in China, the price of the assets included in the inflation index to explore important theoretical models in economics, will be included in the asset price inflation index inflation index to compare. Real estate prices and stock prices impact on inflation and the extent of, and relationship between real estate prices and stock prices into inflation of fitness for a summary. China's current economic development situation, the status quo of the level of development of the stock market and real estate market, the corresponding policy recommendations.