Risk assessment methods in the oil overseas oil and gas exploration projects
|School||University of Electronic Science and Technology|
|Keywords||petroleum enterpris risk evaluation evaluation index system AHP comprehensive evaluation|
The strategy of "going out" of Petroleum Enterprise is the intrinsic demand that we uses the overseas’resources, realizes sustained development. The China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC) proposed the the strategy of "going out" over 10 years, it has had the strong international competitiveness. CNPC’s investment projects based more on exploration investment ,but petroleum prospecting project had high risk and high investment,if successful,could bring good returns; but if that fails, will bring huge losses.Therefore regarding the exploration project,it needs to carry on the risk assessmentTo provide the comprehensive science scientific decision-making to the overseas exploration project,we needs to utilize the scientific method. The paper takes the risk assessment as a starting point,carries on the mathematical method to appraise the overseas exploration project,and improves the accuracy of risk information, reduces investment risk.First we described the knowledge of the overseas oil and gas exploration projects; Afterward we described correlation theories, mainly to transnational investment theory, project management theory and risk management theory. Then carried on the present situation of the petroleum project management.After that we introduced risk assessment of the the overseas oil and gas exploration projects,including the outline of risk assessment of the the overseas oil and gas exploration projects,the step of risk assessment, constructed evaluation indicator system and established the evaluation methods.Finally we evaluated the SuDan project by AHP and comprehensive evaluation method.This paper can provide a reference or guidance to risk assessment of the the overseas oil and gas exploration projects .