Analysis on Water Ecological Carrying Capacity of Jiangxi Province
|Course||Management Science and Engineering|
|Keywords||Water ecological carrying capacity BP neural network analytic hierarchy process membership degree Jiangxi province|
Along with the rapid economic development and population growth, the contradictions among Jiangxi province society, economy, resources with environment has become increasing prominent. The water ecological carrying capacity is the ability to carry the terrestrial ecological, population and economic development. We can coordinate the contradiction among society, economy, resources and environment through evaluating it.Firstly related literature research and review, this paper is to talk about the literature at home and abroad, and then we define the ecological carrying capacity of wather and analysis the factors of it. We use pressure indicators. support power indicators and the flexibility indicators to construction the index system of ecological carrying capacity of water in Jiangxi Province.Then in this paper, the ecological carrying capacity of water is divided into very high (V5), high (V4), middle (V3), low (V2), very low (V1). And we also divided the specific indicators of the ecological carrying capacity of water into 5 grading criteria according the relevant literature and data.And then we use the expert system to generate the sample data of the BP neural network. Then we write programs in Matlab to simulate the data.The 20 groups of random sample data shows that the model has a good simulation result. Further simulation result shows that the ecological carrying capacity of water in Jiangxi Province is in the middle capacity level from 1999 to 2008.Finally we use AHP and Fuzzy maths to analysis the ecological carrying capacity of water in Jiangxi Province. Analysis shows that the ecological carrying capacity of water in Jiangxi Province is in the moderate range of fluctuations in 10 years. The pressure layer leads the trend of decline, the supportive layer leads the trend of rising and the elastic layer leads the trend of fluctuation. Further analysis shows that the indicators of D2(population density), D5(GDP annual growth rate). D6(water consumption per GDP), D7(the tertiary industry rate), D8(farmland irrigation rate) and D14(R&D expenditure per GDP) at the lower level is the main reason of the level of long-term ecological carrying capacity of water in Jiangxi Province is not high. At last we made some possible coutermeasures according to the results of the analysis.